Language:English
Guilherme Pat v Thomas Petersen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Guilherme Pat (Local)
Prediction 56.57%1.77fair odd
EV +13.14%
Edge +6.57%
Kelly +13.14%
Growth +1.73%
assuming max odds 2.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.41%59.15%49.74%79.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.561.292.0085.47%64.26%77.52%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Thomas Petersen (Visit)
Prediction 43.43%2.30fair odd
EV +101.94%
Edge +21.92%
Kelly +27.93%
Growth +28.47%
assuming max odds 4.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.10%40.85%50.26%51.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.883.404.6554.64%34.73%29.41%21.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guilherme Pat (Local): 56.57%; Thomas Petersen (Visit): 43.43%. For Thomas Petersen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +101.94%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.90%EV -33.81%E -28.90%K -198.89%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV +101.94%E +21.92%K +27.93%G +28.47% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -33.25%E -28.17%K -184.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +95.43%E +21.21%K +27.27%G +26.02% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -33.25%E -28.17%K -184.70%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +95.43%E +21.21%K +27.27%G +26.02% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -32.11%E -26.76%K -160.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +73.71%E +18.43%K +24.57%G +18.11% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -32.68%E -27.46%K -172.00%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV +73.71%E +18.43%K +24.57%G +18.11% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV +65.03%E +17.11%K +23.22%G +15.10% | 6.3% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +62.86%E +16.76%K +22.86%G +14.37% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 23:52 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -28.15%E -22.17%K -104.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +58.51%E +16.03%K +22.08%G +12.92% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -28.15%E -22.17%K -104.27%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV +58.51%E +16.03%K +22.08%G +12.92% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -28.15%E -22.17%K -104.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +56.34%E +15.65%K +21.67%G +12.21% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +56.34%E +15.65%K +21.67%G +12.21% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +56.34%E +15.65%K +21.67%G +12.21% | 7.8% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -27.02%E -20.95%K -93.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -27.02%E -20.95%K -93.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -27.02%E -20.95%K -93.18%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -27.59%E -21.55%K -98.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -27.59%E -21.55%K -98.53%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -28.15%E -22.17%K -104.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 7.3% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.53%EV -28.72%E -22.79%K -110.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV +52.00%E +14.86%K +20.80%G +10.82% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV +49.83%E +14.44%K +20.34%G +10.13% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV +47.66%E +14.02%K +19.86%G +9.46% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.12%EV -29.29%E -23.43%K -117.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV +47.66%E +14.02%K +19.86%G +9.46% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 23:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV +2.39%E +1.32%K +2.96%G +0.071% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -11.84%E -5.83%K -11.50%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-04 23:43 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +4.66%E +2.52%K +5.48%G +0.255% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -15.75%E -8.12%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 14:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.19%EV +4.66%E +2.52%K +5.48%G +0.255% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.81%EV -15.75%E -8.12%K -16.75%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-01 14:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV +8.62%E +4.49%K +9.37%G +0.807% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -16.62%E -8.65%K -18.06%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-04 23:43 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +8.05%E +4.22%K +8.85%G +0.712% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -17.05%E -8.93%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 23:42 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +8.05%E +4.22%K +8.85%G +0.712% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -17.05%E -8.93%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 20:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV +8.62%E +4.49%K +9.37%G +0.807% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -17.49%E -9.20%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 23:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +7.49%E +3.94%K +8.32%G +0.623% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -17.49%E -9.20%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 19:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +7.49%E +3.94%K +8.32%G +0.623% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -17.49%E -9.20%K -19.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 19:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%EV +13.14%E +6.57%K +13.14%G +1.73% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -17.92%E -9.48%K -20.14%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-04 23:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV +11.45%E +5.81%K +11.80%G +1.35% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -18.35%E -9.76%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-04 16:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV +6.92%E +3.66%K +7.78%G +0.538% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -18.35%E -9.76%K -20.86%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 23:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +10.31%E +5.29%K +10.86%G +1.12% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -18.79%E -10.05%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV +10.31%E +5.29%K +10.86%G +1.12% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -18.79%E -10.05%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-02 21:13 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +5.79%E +3.10%K +6.65%G +0.385% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -18.79%E -10.05%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +10.31%E +5.29%K +10.86%G +1.12% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -19.66%E -10.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 20:34 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV +10.31%E +5.29%K +10.86%G +1.12% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -19.66%E -10.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 23:43 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV +8.05%E +4.22%K +8.85%G +0.712% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -19.66%E -10.63%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-04 23:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV +10.31%E +5.29%K +10.86%G +1.12% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -20.53%E -11.22%K -24.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-02 17:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.63% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 51.37% | -0.2% | 2026-04-04 23:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.88% | 2.03I 49.26%NM 49.12% | 0.3% | 2026-04-04 23:44 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 23:42 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 76.51% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49% | 2.1% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36% | 4.4% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.24% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76% | 9.3% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.69% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31% | 11.4% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 71.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 28.17% | 39.2% | 2026-04-04 23:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.82% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.34% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 9.0% | 2026-04-04 13:30 |