The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gregory Rodrigues v Brunno Ferreira

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 02:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gregory Rodrigues (Local)

Prediction 59.39%1.68fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -6.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%59.53%59.36%61.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.601.611.6267.57%62.61%62.11%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brunno Ferreira (Visit)

Prediction 40.61%2.46fair odd
EV -1.73%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.14%40.47%40.64%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.332.322.4244.44%42.88%43.10%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gregory Rodrigues (Local): 59.39%; Brunno Ferreira (Visit): 40.61%. For Brunno Ferreira (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.46. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.42, with an expected value of -1.73%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -1.73%E -0.714%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-08 02:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.4%2026-03-08 02:15
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.16%E -1.76%K -3.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 02:14
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.57%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 02:06
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:12
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.63%E -3.84%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.79%E -2.34%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.63%E -3.84%K -6.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 02:14
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-08 02:15
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.55%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.45%EV -3.76%E -1.59%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-08 02:23
Unibet (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.57%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-08 02:14
LeoVegas🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Grosvenor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
BetRivers🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
TABtouch🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Unibet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
betPARX🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Bally Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -5.79%E -2.50%K -4.39%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.38%E -2.72%K -7.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-08 02:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.97%E -3.11%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.57%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-08 02:14
SportsBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -5.57%E -3.50%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-08 02:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.57%E -3.50%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 02:14
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.57%E -3.50%K -9.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 02:07
PlayUp🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.16%E -3.90%K -10.62%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-08 02:14
Bet Right🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.75%E -4.30%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-08 02:19
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.75%E -4.30%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.35%E -1.41%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-08 02:12
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.75%E -4.30%K -11.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.63%E -3.84%K -6.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 02:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.38%EV -7.35%E -4.71%K -13.12%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.63%EV -7.41%E -3.25%K -5.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 02:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.94%E -5.12%K -14.44%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -6.60%E -2.87%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 02:07
Betsson🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -12.10%E -8.18%K -25.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-08 02:14
NordicBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -12.10%E -8.18%K -25.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -2.54%E -1.06%K -1.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-08 02:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-03-08 02:24
Novig◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29%0.9%2026-03-08 02:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%0.9%2026-03-08 02:24
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.39%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%1.0%2026-03-08 02:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-03-08 02:24
Matchbook◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-03-08 02:24
ProphetX◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.80%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.20%2.0%2026-03-08 02:24