Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greg Foster v Jason Asher

2026-10-13 23:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greg Foster (Local)

Prediction 35.11%2.85fair odd

EV -2.05%

Edge -0.736%

Kelly -1.15%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.51%35.11%34.98%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.652.692.652.7937.74%37.13%37.74%35.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jason Asher (Visit)

Prediction 64.89%1.54fair odd

EV -3.31%

Edge -2.22%

Kelly -6.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.16%64.89%65.02%65.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.461.461.4969.93%68.65%68.73%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Greg Foster (Local): 35.11%; Jason Asher (Visit): 64.89%. For Greg Foster (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.79, with an expected value of -2.05%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -2.05%E -0.736%K -1.15%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -4.61%E -3.13%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-12 05:20
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.77I 36.10%NM 34.98%EV -2.76%E -0.995%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -3.31%E -2.22%K -6.75%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-10-12 05:19
Unibet (UK)🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -3.96%E -2.67%K -8.24%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-12 05:19
Unibet🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -6.55%E -4.55%K -14.89%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-10-12 05:19
Grosvenor🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.20%E -5.04%K -16.75%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-12 05:19
TABtouch🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -6.97%E -2.63%K -4.22%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.20%E -5.04%K -16.75%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-10-12 05:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70%	1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30%	0.8%	2026-10-12 07:05
Polymarket◎	3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%	1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%	1.0%	2026-10-12 05:19
Novig◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.43%	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.57%	4.5%	2026-10-12 06:04
ProphetX◎	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%	6.3%	2026-10-12 05:20