The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Greg Foster v Jason Asher

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 23:18 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Greg Foster (Local)

Prediction 35.99%2.78fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.94%36.06%35.99%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.542.652.652.7139.37%37.76%37.74%36.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jason Asher (Visit)

Prediction 64.01%1.56fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.37%63.94%64.01%65.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.471.461.5268.97%67.84%68.26%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Greg Foster (Local): 35.99%; Jason Asher (Visit): 64.01%. For Greg Foster (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.71, with an expected value of -2.47%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.63%EV -2.47%E -0.910%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.37%EV -3.98%E -2.66%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-13 23:00
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.83%E -1.05%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.55%E -4.48%K -14.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-13 15:19
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.83%E -1.05%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-13 15:19
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.83%E -1.05%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-13 15:19
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -4.63%E -1.75%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.98%E -2.66%K -7.97%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-13 22:13
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.63%E -1.75%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.27%E -3.56%K -10.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-12 05:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.63%EV -5.35%E -2.03%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.37%EV -2.70%E -1.78%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-13 23:04
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.43%E -2.47%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -5.91%E -4.02%K -12.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-13 23:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.43%E -2.47%K -4.02%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -6.55%E -4.48%K -14.23%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-13 22:54
ReBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34%EV -8.59%E -3.38%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-13 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.38%1.60I 62.50%NM 62.62%-0.2%2026-10-13 23:09
Novig◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77%1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23%0.7%2026-10-13 23:09
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.62%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.38%1.1%2026-10-13 23:10
Polymarket◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77%2.1%2026-10-13 23:09
ProphetX◎2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%3.1%2026-10-13 23:05