The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Grant Dawson v Nurullo Aliev

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 16:19 UTC

Final: Grant Dawson 1–0 Nurullo Aliev

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grant Dawson (Local)

Prediction 49.63%2.01fair odd
EV -0.739%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.739%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.45%49.70%50.00%51.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.881.892.0059.52%53.13%52.91%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nurullo Aliev (Visit)

Prediction 50.37%1.99fair odd
EV -0.269%
Edge -0.136%
Kelly -0.274%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.03%50.30%50.00%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.911.911.9855.25%52.36%52.36%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grant Dawson (Local): 49.63%; Nurullo Aliev (Visit): 50.37%. For Nurullo Aliev (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.98, with an expected value of -0.269%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%EV -0.739%E -0.369%K -0.739%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-24 16:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.45%EV -1.23%E -0.621%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.55%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-24 15:54
ReBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -1.73%E -0.874%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 15:54
Coolbet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83%EV -2.23%E -1.13%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17%EV -5.31%E -2.82%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-24 16:04
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.22%E -1.65%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.82%E -3.68%K -8.02%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -4.21%E -2.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.00%EV -2.79%E -1.44%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-24 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.29%E -1.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-23 15:24
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.29%E -1.71%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-24 15:34
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -4.71%E -2.45%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -5.31%E -2.82%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 16:10
Caesars🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 02:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 15:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.79%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-24 15:55
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -5.21%E -2.73%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -7.82%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 15:50
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.34%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -5.81%E -3.11%K -6.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-24 16:00
Betsson🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -6.20%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -4.80%E -2.54%K -5.40%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-21 20:54
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.19%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.78%E -0.913%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 16:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -7.19%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -1.78%E -0.913%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -7.19%E -3.85%K -8.27%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -2.28%E -1.18%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 16:00
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -0.269%E -0.136%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 05:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -0.269%E -0.136%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 05:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -0.269%E -0.136%K -0.274%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 05:19
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -0.772%E -0.392%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 05:20
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -0.772%E -0.392%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 05:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -0.772%E -0.392%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 05:20
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -0.772%E -0.392%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 05:19
Bally Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -0.772%E -0.392%K -0.796%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 05:19
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.82%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -9.18%E -5.01%K -11.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -7.82%E -4.28%K -9.43%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.33%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -3.79%E -1.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 04:24
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 51.86%EV -16.62%E -9.89%K -24.44%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.14%EV -8.83%E -4.88%K -10.90%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-22 05:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%0.0%2026-10-24 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-10-24 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75%0.5%2026-10-24 16:10
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-24 16:10
Novig◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-24 16:10
Polymarket◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.0%2026-10-23 14:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-24 16:10
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-10-24 16:05
ProphetX◎2.03I 49.26%NM 48.35%1.90I 52.63%NM 51.65%1.9%2026-10-24 16:05

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.39%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.41%9.3%2026-10-24 15:55