The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Grant Dawson v Mateusz Rebecki

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 23:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grant Dawson (Local)

Prediction 57.08%1.75fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -3.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%57.18%57.11%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.681.691.7161.73%59.54%59.17%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mateusz Rebecki (Visit)

Prediction 42.92%2.33fair odd
EV +0.863%
Edge +0.367%
Kelly +0.639%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%42.82%42.89%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.202.202.3547.62%45.49%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grant Dawson (Local): 57.08%; Mateusz Rebecki (Visit): 42.92%. For Mateusz Rebecki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.863%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV +0.863%E +0.367%K +0.639%G +0.006%4.3%2026-05-09 23:34
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.28%E -0.558%K -0.987%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 22:55
Pinnacle🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.54%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.46%EV -1.71%E -0.748%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-09 23:39
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 57.07%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.93%EV -3.00%E -1.33%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-09 23:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-09 23:39
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-09 13:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 13:34
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.43%E -1.52%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 13:34
FanDuel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.11%E -2.44%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.86%E -1.72%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 22:49
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -4.11%E -2.44%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -3.86%E -1.72%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-09 18:49
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -5.15%E -2.33%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-09 23:18
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -2.39%E -1.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-09 23:39
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:09
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 16:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 16:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 21:00
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.68%E -2.80%K -6.98%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.25%E -3.16%K -7.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 16:25
Fliff🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.82%E -3.53%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 05:39
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.53%E -4.65%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -5.57%E -2.53%K -4.65%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 00:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:05
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:04
TABtouch🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.96%E -1.74%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-09 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.54%E -2.09%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.72%E -3.59%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 23:04
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.39%E -1.40%K -3.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.87%E -4.70%K -8.97%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.84%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.16%0.5%2026-05-09 23:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-05-09 23:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.99%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.01%0.9%2026-05-09 23:39
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-05-09 23:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.32%2.26I 44.25%NM 40.83%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.4%2026-05-09 22:24