Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gino van Steenis v Robert Watley

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 22:00 UTC

Final: Gino van Steenis 1–0 Robert Watley

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gino van Steenis (Local)

Prediction 61.40%1.63fair odd

EV -2.38%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -4.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.89%61.40%61.40%61.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.571.571.5964.52%63.69%63.69%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robert Watley (Visit)

Prediction 38.60%2.59fair odd

EV -2.72%

Edge -1.08%

Kelly -1.79%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.24%38.60%38.60%39.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.482.482.5240.82%40.32%40.40%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gino van Steenis (Local): 61.40%; Robert Watley (Visit): 38.60%. For Gino van Steenis (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -2.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -2.38%E -1.50%K -4.03%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV -3.88%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000%	3.1%	2026-08-22 21:19
ReBet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -2.99%E -1.89%K -5.16%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -5.04%E -2.05%K -3.45%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-08-22 21:24
FanDuel🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.76%EV -4.22%E -2.71%K -7.54%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 38.24%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-22 21:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.83%E -3.12%K -8.79%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-22 21:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.