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Gino van Steenis v Robert Watley

2026-08-23 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gino van Steenis (Local)

Prediction 62.50%1.60fair odd
EV -5.63%
Edge -3.73%
Kelly -11.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.44%62.50%62.50%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.501.501.5166.67%66.45%66.45%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Robert Watley (Visit)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -3.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%37.50%37.50%37.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.502.502.5140.00%39.92%39.92%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gino van Steenis (Local): 62.50%; Robert Watley (Visit): 37.50%. For Gino van Steenis (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.51, with an expected value of -5.63%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.44%EV -5.63%E -3.73%K -11.03%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.56%EV -5.88%E -2.34%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-19 20:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.25%E -4.17%K -12.50%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.25%E -2.50%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-19 20:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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