Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gilbert Nakatani v Joshua Perreira

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 01:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gilbert Nakatani (Local)

Prediction 54.64%1.83fair odd

EV +10.36%

Edge +5.13%

Kelly +10.16%

Growth +1.05%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.42%54.64%54.64%55.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.891.902.0257.47%52.91%52.63%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joshua Perreira (Visit)

Prediction 45.36%2.20fair odd

EV -2.01%

Edge -0.932%

Kelly -1.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.62%45.36%45.36%53.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.751.941.922.1657.14%51.68%52.22%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gilbert Nakatani (Local): 54.64%; Joshua Perreira (Visit): 45.36%. For Gilbert Nakatani (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.02, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Neds🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV +10.36%E +5.13%K +10.16%G +1.05%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -20.61%E -11.78%K -27.48%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-10 17:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV +10.36%E +5.13%K +10.16%G +1.05%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -20.61%E -11.78%K -27.48%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-10 17:45
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.89%EV -2.75%E -1.54%K -3.52%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 46.11%EV -5.64%E -2.71%K -5.22%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-04-11 00:10
FanDuel🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -4.93%E -2.84%K -6.67%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -2.01%E -0.932%K -1.73%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-11 00:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.