Language:English
Geoffrey Neal v Uros Medic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Geoffrey Neal (Local)
Prediction 64.75%1.54fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.63%64.67%64.75%65.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.461.5269.93%68.28%68.49%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Uros Medic (Visit)
Prediction 35.25%2.84fair odd
EV -0.590%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.324%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.20%35.33%35.25%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.692.702.8240.32%37.14%37.04%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geoffrey Neal (Local): 64.75%; Uros Medic (Visit): 35.25%. For Uros Medic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.82, with an expected value of -0.590%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.81%EV -1.58%E -1.04%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.19%EV -5.53%E -2.06%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-02-22 02:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.88%E -1.92%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-21 22:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.88%E -1.92%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 22:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.88%E -1.92%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 22:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.88%E -1.92%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 14:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.88%E -1.92%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 19:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -1.30%E -0.463%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-02-22 03:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-02-22 02:36 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.58%E -2.48%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-22 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -6.58%E -2.48%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-21 22:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.63%EV -4.17%E -2.82%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.37%EV -12.58%E -5.07%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-21 19:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27%EV -0.590%E -0.209%K -0.324%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-02-22 03:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.30%E -0.463%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-21 03:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.41%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%EV -2.00%E -0.719%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-21 22:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.58%E -2.48%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 22:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.82%E -3.28%K -10.26%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.58%E -2.48%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-22 03:12 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -5.47%E -3.74%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -1.30%E -0.463%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.47%E -3.74%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-22 03:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.47%E -3.74%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -5.47%E -3.74%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -1.65%E -0.591%K -0.920%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-21 01:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-02-21 22:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-20 05:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-21 23:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.06%E -1.11%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-02-22 00:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -4.82%E -1.79%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 03:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.76%E -4.70%K -15.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.35%E -3.21%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -7.41%E -5.18%K -17.23%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -6.58%E -2.48%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-02-21 14:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69% | 0.1% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.59% | 2.99I 33.44%NM 33.41% | 0.1% | 2026-02-22 03:12 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55% | 0.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55% | 0.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.06% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 34.94% | 1.1% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02% | 1.3% | 2026-02-22 03:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 64.81% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.19% | 1.5% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.34% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 33.80% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.2% | 2026-02-22 03:15 |