Language:English
Gaston Bolanos v Michael Aswell
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Gaston Bolanos (Local)
Prediction 23.25%4.30fair odd
EV +6.93%
Edge +1.51%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.133%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%23.22%23.37%25.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.114.104.6027.03%24.34%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Aswell (Visit)
Prediction 76.75%1.30fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -6.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.90%76.78%76.63%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.241.2883.33%80.77%80.65%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gaston Bolanos (Local): 23.25%; Michael Aswell (Visit): 76.75%. For Gaston Bolanos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.93%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +6.93%E +1.51%K +1.92%G +0.133% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.89%E -6.58%K -39.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 12:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +6.93%E +1.51%K +1.92%G +0.133% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.89%E -6.58%K -39.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 12:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.44I 22.52%NM 21.83%EV +3.21%E +0.723%K +0.933%G +0.030% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.17%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-20 21:40 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +2.28%E +0.518%K +0.670%G +0.015% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.36%E -5.21%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 12:28 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV +1.12%E +0.257%K +0.333%G +0.004% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -7.89%E -6.58%K -39.47%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-18 17:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.046%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -0.046%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -0.046%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.59%E -4.55%K -24.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-18 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.24%EV -0.046%E -0.011%K -0.014%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.76%EV -5.59%E -4.55%K -24.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-18 17:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.73%EV -1.21%E -0.284%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.27%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-06-16 14:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.21%E -0.284%K -0.372%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.36%E -5.21%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-16 23:58 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.37%E -0.564%K -0.741%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.55%K -24.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.69%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 09:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.69%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 09:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.69%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 09:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.69%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 09:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.69%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.36%E -5.21%K -28.90%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -2.52%E -1.99%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-20 13:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-18 17:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 12:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 12:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -7.02%E -1.75%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-20 09:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.18%E -2.07%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.53%EV -1.75%E -1.37%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.18%E -2.07%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-20 12:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -8.18%E -2.07%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -7.13%E -5.89%K -33.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.45%EV -8.18%E -2.07%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.55%EV -7.13%E -5.89%K -33.94%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -1.75%E -1.37%K -6.26%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -2.52%E -1.99%K -9.34%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 13:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.83%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.06%E -3.25%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-20 13:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -13.99%E -3.78%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.10%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-20 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 4.78I 20.92%NM 20.86% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.14% | 0.3% | 2026-06-20 21:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 0.8% | 2026-06-20 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-06-20 22:19 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.60% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.40% | 1.7% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 4.26I 23.47%NM 22.97% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.03% | 2.2% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21% | 4.5% | 2026-06-20 22:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.21I 23.75%NM 21.89% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.55% | 36.00I 2.78%NM 2.56% | 8.5% | 2026-06-20 22:14 |