The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gamid Khizriev v Lorenzo Parente

Kickoff: 2026-06-27 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gamid Khizriev (Local)

Prediction 74.87%1.34fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -2.65%
Kelly -11.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.65%74.87%74.90%75.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.281.281.2979.37%78.26%78.13%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lorenzo Parente (Visit)

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -0.681%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.13%25.10%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.623.753.9029.41%27.61%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gamid Khizriev (Local): 74.87%; Lorenzo Parente (Visit): 25.13%. For Lorenzo Parente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.90%EV -3.42%E -2.65%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.23%E -0.840%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-06-26 16:19
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.42%E -2.65%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-26 18:59
FanDuel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -1.98%E -0.507%K -0.681%G +0.000%3.8%2026-06-27 00:49
Unibet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 16:19
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 16:19
Bally Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -4.17%E -3.26%K -14.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -14.54%E -4.28%K -6.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-27 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-26 19:00
Neds🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.67%E -4.50%K -21.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-26 18:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.