The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gadzhi Rabadanov v Aleksandr Chizov

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 03:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gadzhi Rabadanov (Local)

Prediction 87.47%1.14fair odd
EV -0.290%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.40%87.47%87.91%89.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.111.111.1495.24%90.36%90.09%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aleksandr Chizov (Visit)

Prediction 12.53%7.98fair odd
EV +12.81%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.60%
Growth +0.205%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.45%12.53%12.09%18.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.906.475.609.0020.41%15.46%17.86%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gadzhi Rabadanov (Local): 87.47%; Aleksandr Chizov (Visit): 12.53%. For Aleksandr Chizov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.98. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -8.16%E -7.77%K -163.23%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +12.81%E +1.42%K +1.60%G +0.205%6.3%2026-05-03 03:35
Neds🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -7.29%E -6.87%K -121.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV +9.68%E +1.11%K +1.25%G +0.121%5.8%2026-05-03 03:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.19%EV -7.29%E -6.87%K -121.45%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.81%EV +9.68%E +1.11%K +1.25%G +0.121%5.8%2026-05-03 03:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -3.79%E -3.44%K -37.88%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV +0.278%E +0.035%K +0.040%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-03 03:10
FanDuel🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.93%EV -3.79%E -3.44%K -37.88%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.07%EV -22.28%E -3.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 03:35
LeoVegas🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 84.18%EV -4.66%E -4.28%K -51.81%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.82%EV -27.30%E -4.71%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-03 03:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -0.290%E -0.254%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -32.31%E -5.98%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 03:34
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -0.290%E -0.254%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -32.31%E -5.98%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 03:34
Unibet (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -0.290%E -0.254%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -32.31%E -5.98%K -7.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 03:35
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -0.290%E -0.254%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -37.33%E -7.47%K -9.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 03:34
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -0.290%E -0.254%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -37.33%E -7.47%K -9.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-03 03:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.40%EV -2.04%E -1.82%K -16.99%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.60%EV -38.58%E -7.87%K -9.89%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-03 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.