Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gable Steveson v Sean Sharaf

2026-09-20 01:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gable Steveson (Local)

Prediction 90.97%1.10fair odd

EV -3.57%

Edge -3.37%

Kelly -59.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.03%90.79%91.03%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.021.051.041.0698.04%95.61%95.69%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sean Sharaf (Visit)

Prediction 9.03%11.08fair odd

EV +17.36%

Edge +1.34%

Kelly +1.45%

Growth +0.251%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.41%9.21%8.97%11.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.5010.2410.5013.0013.33%9.77%9.52%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gable Steveson (Local): 90.97%; Sean Sharaf (Visit): 9.03%. For Sean Sharaf (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.08. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +17.36%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +17.36%E +1.34%K +1.45%G +0.251%	3.8%	2026-09-16 01:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +3.82%E +0.332%K +0.364%G +0.014%	4.8%	2026-09-15 12:55
DraftKings🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-14 17:08
Betsson🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-14 19:25
NordicBet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-14 19:29
Caesars🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-13 23:58
Coolbet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 22:55
Bovada🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-14 18:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-14 17:10
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.30%E -6.12%K -209.96%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -0.694%E -0.063%K -0.069%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-16 01:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.07%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	10.81I 9.25%NM 8.93%EV -2.41%E -0.223%K -0.246%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-09-14 18:45
ReBet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 91.22%EV -6.30%E -6.12%K -209.96%G +0.000%	10.70I 9.35%NM 8.78%EV -3.40%E -0.318%K -0.351%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-09-16 01:04
BetMGM🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-09-13 00:45
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
BetRivers🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
Unibet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
TABtouch🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:10
Bally Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
betPARX🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV -5.21%E -0.496%K -0.548%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-14 17:09
Fliff🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -7.46%E -0.728%K -0.807%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-16 01:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -9.72%E -0.972%K -1.08%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-15 00:05
888sport🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -9.72%E -0.972%K -1.08%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-15 00:05
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.53%EV -7.21%E -7.07%K -360.42%G +0.000%	9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -11.98%E -1.23%K -1.37%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-15 01:39
SportsBet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.24%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-13 00:45
Bet Right🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -14.24%E -1.50%K -1.67%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-13 02:05
Betr (AU)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -4.48%E -4.27%K -89.59%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -16.49%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-15 00:05
BetAnything🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 89.89%EV -5.39%E -5.18%K -134.72%G +0.000%	9.25I 10.81%NM 10.11%EV -16.49%E -1.78%K -2.00%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-09-16 01:05
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -18.75%E -2.08%K -2.34%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-08 16:05
Paddy Power🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -23.26%E -2.74%K -3.10%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-08 16:04
Sky Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -23.26%E -2.74%K -3.10%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-08-15 16:08
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -3.57%E -3.37%K -59.49%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -23.26%E -2.74%K -3.10%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-12 22:45
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 88.03%EV -7.21%E -7.07%K -360.42%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -32.29%E -4.31%K -4.97%G +0.000%	11.4%	2026-09-16 01:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95%	0.6%	2026-09-15 23:55
Novig◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.96%	8.70I 11.49%NM 11.04%	4.1%	2026-09-16 02:35
Matchbook◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%	4.3%	2026-09-16 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%	4.8%	2026-09-15 21:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%	4.8%	2026-09-15 21:41
ProphetX◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%	5.5%	2026-09-15 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 49.52%	1.03I 97.09%NM 50.48%	92.3%	2026-09-15 21:41

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 89.00%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%	50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%	9.1%	2026-09-14 18:41