The School of Odds
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Gable Steveson v Sean Sharaf

2026-09-20 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gable Steveson (Local)

Prediction 88.17%1.13fair odd
EV -4.78%
Edge -4.42%
Kelly -59.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.74%88.15%88.20%89.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.071.071.0898.04%93.79%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sean Sharaf (Visit)

Prediction 11.83%8.45fair odd
EV +6.47%
Edge +0.719%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%11.85%11.80%13.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.198.509.0014.29%12.22%11.76%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gable Steveson (Local): 88.17%; Sean Sharaf (Visit): 11.83%. For Sean Sharaf (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.45. 14 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 9.00, producing a positive expected value of +6.47%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.54%E -6.17%K -109.00%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +6.47%E +0.719%K +0.809%G +0.052%5.5%2026-08-08 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.78%E -4.42%K -59.70%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-23 10:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
BetRivers🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
Unibet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
TABtouch🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
Bally Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
betPARX🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 10:45
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.54%E -6.17%K -109.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 16:04
SportsBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.54%E -6.17%K -109.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 16:04
Sky Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -6.54%E -6.17%K -109.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +0.555%E +0.065%K +0.074%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 16:08
Caesars🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -5.36%E -0.670%K -0.766%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-26 03:04
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.59%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.41%EV -10.68%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 01:24
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.59%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.41%EV -10.68%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-16 01:23
Unibet (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -11.28%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 15:54
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.03%EV -10.07%E -9.87%K -503.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.97%EV -11.28%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-23 10:45
ReBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.22%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -13.64%E -1.87%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-26 12:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -5.66%E -5.29%K -80.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -17.19%E -2.46%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-06 21:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.02I 98.04%NM 88.69%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%10.5%2026-08-26 12:09

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.10%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.08%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.82%7.3%2026-08-26 12:09