The School of Odds
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Gable Steveson v Sean Sharaf

2026-09-20 00:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gable Steveson (Local)

Prediction 91.58%1.09fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -2.76%
Kelly -48.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
91.21%91.58%91.58%91.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.061.061.0695.24%94.79%94.79%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sean Sharaf (Visit)

Prediction 8.42%11.88fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.092%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 12.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.05%8.42%8.42%8.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0011.5011.5012.009.09%8.70%8.70%8.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Gable Steveson (Local): 91.58%; Sean Sharaf (Visit): 8.42%. For Sean Sharaf (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.88. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 12.00, producing a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -3.84%E -3.66%K -76.77%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +1.01%E +0.084%K +0.092%G +0.001%3.6%2026-08-06 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -2.92%E -2.76%K -48.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV -7.41%E -0.673%K -0.741%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-06 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.