The School of OddsGable Steveson v Elisha Ellison
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Gable Steveson (Local)
Odds
1.0199.01%Min
1.0496.06%Mean
1.0496.15%Median
1.0694.34%Max
Consensus probabilities
89.55%1.117Min
94.86%1.054Max
92.56%1.080Mean
92.79%1.078Median
92.75%1.078IQM
92.77%1.078Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.06 under the IQM model: 92.75%
EV -1.69%Edge -1.59%Kelly -28.11%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Elisha Ellison (Visit)
Odds
9.0011.11%Min
11.728.53%Mean
11.009.09%Median
19.005.26%Max
Consensus probabilities
5.14%19.447Min
10.45%9.571Max
7.44%13.444Mean
7.21%13.871Median
7.25%13.790IQM
7.23%13.831Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 19.00 under the IQM model: 7.25%
EV +37.78%Edge +1.99%Kelly +2.10%Growth +0.793%
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Gable Steveson (Local) | Elisha Ellison (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 1.03I 97.09% NM 94.86%EV -4.47% E -4.34% K -148.96% G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26% NM 5.14%EV +37.78% E +1.99% K +2.10% G +0.793% | 2.4% | 2026-07-04 22:50 |
| Caesars | 1.04I 96.15% NM 93.09%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.91%EV +1.52% E +0.109% K +0.117% G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-05-31 04:17 |
| DraftKings | 1.04I 96.15% NM 93.09%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.91%EV +1.52% E +0.109% K +0.117% G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-07-04 06:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.04I 96.15% NM 93.09%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14% NM 6.91%EV +1.52% E +0.109% K +0.117% G +0.002% | 3.3% | 2026-06-15 15:31 |
| Pinnacle | 1.04I 96.15% NM 93.00%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 13.82I 7.24% NM 7.00%EV +0.214% E +0.015% K +0.017% G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-04 14:15 |
| Bovada | 1.04I 96.15% NM 92.59%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.41%EV -5.73% E -0.441% K -0.478% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-04 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.72%EV -5.40% E -5.29% K -269.82% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.28%EV -5.73% E -0.441% K -0.478% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-04 23:40 |
| BetMGM | 1.01I 99.01% NM 92.79%EV -6.32% E -6.26% K -632.39% G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69% NM 7.21%EV -5.73% E -0.441% K -0.478% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-29 00:20 |
| 888sport | 1.03I 97.09% NM 92.39%EV -4.47% E -4.34% K -148.96% G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00% NM 7.61%EV -9.36% E -0.749% K -0.814% G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-04 18:05 |
| TAB | 1.03I 97.09% NM 92.10%EV -4.47% E -4.34% K -148.96% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.90%EV -12.98% E -1.08% K -1.18% G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:29 |
| NordicBet | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.40% E -5.29% K -269.82% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -12.98% E -1.08% K -1.18% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-06 22:29 |
| Betsson | 1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.40% E -5.29% K -269.82% G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -12.98% E -1.08% K -1.18% G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-06 22:29 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.01I 99.01% NM 92.08%EV -6.32% E -6.26% K -632.39% G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51% NM 7.92%EV -14.80% E -1.26% K -1.38% G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-26 02:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.04I 96.15% NM 91.71%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70% NM 8.29%EV -16.61% E -1.44% K -1.58% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| Neds | 1.04I 96.15% NM 91.71%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70% NM 8.29%EV -16.61% E -1.44% K -1.58% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-27 17:49 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.03I 97.09% NM 91.61%EV -4.47% E -4.34% K -148.96% G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89% NM 8.39%EV -18.42% E -1.64% K -1.80% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 03:14 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:05 |
| Grosvenor | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:04 |
| LeoVegas | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:05 |
| Unibet | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:05 |
| TABtouch | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 16:03 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-18 12:55 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-19 09:40 |
| betPARX | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 11:59 |
| Bally Bet | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 12:00 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.05I 95.24% NM 91.29%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.71%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-27 12:19 |
| SportsBet | 1.04I 96.15% NM 91.36%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.64%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-05 00:10 |
| Bet Right | 1.04I 96.15% NM 91.36%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09% NM 8.64%EV -20.23% E -1.84% K -2.02% G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 07:30 |
| BetAnything | 1.03I 97.09% NM 91.29%EV -4.47% E -4.34% K -148.96% G +0.000% | 10.80I 9.26% NM 8.71%EV -21.69% E -2.01% K -2.21% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 22:50 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.06I 94.34% NM 90.42%EV -1.69% E -1.59% K -28.11% G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00% NM 9.58%EV -27.49% E -2.75% K -3.05% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-03 03:15 |
| FanDuel | 1.04I 96.15% NM 90.58%EV -3.54% E -3.41% K -88.54% G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00% NM 9.42%EV -27.49% E -2.75% K -3.05% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-18 11:15 |
| PlayUp | 1.06I 94.34% NM 89.96%EV -1.69% E -1.59% K -28.11% G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53% NM 10.04%EV -31.11% E -3.27% K -3.66% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-04 23:45 |
| Paddy Power | 1.05I 95.24% NM 89.55%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11% NM 10.45%EV -34.74% E -3.86% K -4.34% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-18 11:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.05I 95.24% NM 89.55%EV -2.61% E -2.49% K -52.28% G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11% NM 10.45%EV -34.74% E -3.86% K -4.34% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-18 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.02I 98.04% NM 88.03%EV -5.40% E -5.29% K -269.82% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 11.97%EV -45.61% E -6.08% K -7.02% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-05-24 03:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Gable Steveson (Local) | Elisha Ellison (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.09I 91.74% | 12.20I 8.20% | -0.1% | 2026-07-05 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.05I 95.24% | 12.00I 8.33% | 3.6% | 2026-07-04 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.05I 95.24% | 12.00I 8.33% | 3.6% | 2026-07-04 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.05I 95.24% | 12.00I 8.33% | 3.6% | 2026-07-04 18:05 |
| Kalshi | 1.09I 91.74% | 8.33I 12.00% | 3.7% | 2026-06-30 14:59 |
| Novig | 1.04I 96.15% | 10.53I 9.50% | 5.7% | 2026-07-05 13:50 |
| ProphetX | 1.03I 97.09% | 11.00I 9.09% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 12:45 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.01I 99.01% | 11.50I 8.70% | 50.00I 2.00% | 9.7% | 2026-07-04 11:05 |
Arbitrage (2 combinations)+0.40%PointsBet (AU) 1.06 (94.7%) / BetOnline.ag 19.00 (5.3%)Show all 2 combinations
| Gable Steveson (Local) | Elisha Ellison (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU) 1.06 (94.7%) | BetOnline.ag 19.00 (5.3%) | +0.399% |
| PlayUp 1.06 (94.7%) | BetOnline.ag 19.00 (5.3%) | +0.399% |