The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Franco Tenaglia v Yassin Najid

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 21:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Franco Tenaglia (Local)

Prediction 80.30%1.25fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -13.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.43%80.30%80.17%80.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.191.201.2185.47%83.71%83.33%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yassin Najid (Visit)

Prediction 19.70%5.08fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.301%
Kelly -0.376%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%19.70%19.83%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.154.544.405.0024.10%22.02%22.73%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Franco Tenaglia (Local): 80.30%; Yassin Najid (Visit): 19.70%. For Yassin Najid (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.00, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 77.43%EV -2.84%E -2.34%K -13.50%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -18.25%E -4.40%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 21:00
FanDuel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -4.46%E -0.920%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-20 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -6.43%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-20 20:54
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 10:00
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 10:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 09:59
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 09:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 09:59
Bally Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.64%E -3.03%K -18.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.32%E -3.03%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-19 09:59
BetMGM🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.24%E -4.44%K -29.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.51%E -0.301%K -0.376%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-20 19:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.43%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 19:15
Neds🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.05%E -5.17%K -35.57%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.43%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-20 19:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.