Language:English
Francisco Prado v Charlie Radtke
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francisco Prado (Local)
Prediction 40.01%2.50fair odd
EV -0.778%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.525%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.75%40.21%40.00%42.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.432.4844.44%41.81%41.15%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Charlie Radtke (Visit)
Prediction 59.99%1.67fair odd
EV +0.785%
Edge +0.467%
Kelly +1.15%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.47%59.79%60.00%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.581.561.6865.36%63.19%64.10%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francisco Prado (Local): 40.01%; Charlie Radtke (Visit): 59.99%. For Charlie Radtke (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.67. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.785%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -9.18%E -4.04%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV +0.785%E +0.467%K +1.15%G +0.009% | 3.6% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.01%E -0.615%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -2.21%E -1.36%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 40.00%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.00%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-11 21:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.58%E -2.36%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -5.58%E -2.36%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 21:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.98%E -4.44%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.81%E -1.74%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.78%E -2.91%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.41%E -2.12%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -3.18%E -1.31%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.01%E -2.51%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.01%E -2.51%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.98%E -2.54%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.01%E -2.51%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -1.98%E -0.807%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -5.21%E -3.30%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 18:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -1.98%E -0.807%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -5.21%E -3.30%K -8.99%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-11 18:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -0.778%E -0.314%K -0.525%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-09 19:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.81%E -3.70%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -1.98%E -0.807%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -2.78%E -1.14%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -6.41%E -4.11%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.98%E -0.807%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.01%E -4.53%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 20:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -1.98%E -0.807%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.01%E -4.53%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 21:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -7.01%E -4.53%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 18:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -7.61%E -4.94%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-11 13:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -3.98%E -1.66%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.21%E -5.37%K -15.50%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 21:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 41.26% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.74% | 0.1% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.87% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.13% | 1.2% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.73% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.27% | 1.5% | 2026-04-11 21:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 38.27% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.4% | 2026-04-11 09:14 |