The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Francis Ngannou v Philipe Lins

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 02:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francis Ngannou (Local)

Prediction 88.73%1.13fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -3.87%
Kelly -52.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.30%88.73%88.73%88.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.0895.24%93.63%93.46%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philipe Lins (Visit)

Prediction 11.27%8.87fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -0.491%
Kelly -0.557%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.18%11.27%11.27%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.008.358.508.5012.50%11.98%11.76%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francis Ngannou (Local): 88.73%; Philipe Lins (Visit): 11.27%. For Francis Ngannou (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.08, with an expected value of -4.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.18%E -3.87%K -52.19%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-17 01:45
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 13:25
Bally Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 13:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -4.18%E -0.491%K -0.557%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-15 13:25
Neds🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -6.99%E -0.848%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 22:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -5.06%E -4.73%K -72.32%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -6.99%E -0.848%K -0.965%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 22:30
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.95%E -5.61%K -99.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -9.81%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 01:55
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -6.84%E -6.51%K -136.74%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -9.81%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-16 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.11I 90.09%NM 89.92%9.90I 10.10%NM 10.08%0.2%2026-05-17 01:55
Kalshi◎1.11I 90.09%NM 88.24%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.76%2.1%2026-05-17 02:05