Language:English
Francis Marshall v Lucas Brennan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Francis Marshall (Local)
Prediction 81.14%1.23fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -2.20%
Kelly -13.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.78%81.10%81.17%82.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.171.161.2087.72%85.45%86.21%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lucas Brennan (Visit)
Prediction 18.86%5.30fair odd
EV +4.69%
Edge +0.845%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 5.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.04%18.90%18.83%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.205.195.405.5523.81%19.27%18.52%18.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francis Marshall (Local): 81.14%; Lucas Brennan (Visit): 18.86%. For Lucas Brennan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.30. 20 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.69%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.96%EV -7.50%E -6.58%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV +4.69%E +0.845%K +1.03%G +0.048% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 21:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.96%EV -7.50%E -6.58%K -53.60%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.04%EV +4.69%E +0.845%K +1.03%G +0.048% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 21:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 3.7% | 2026-04-24 03:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 4.4% | 2026-04-22 13:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -6.69%E -5.82%K -44.62%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +3.75%E +0.681%K +0.833%G +0.031% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 13:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +1.86%E +0.344%K +0.423%G +0.008% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.32%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +1.86%E +0.344%K +0.423%G +0.008% | 4.7% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -5.88%E -5.07%K -36.76%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -0.026%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-21 14:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.969%E -0.185%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -0.969%E -0.185%K -0.228%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-23 22:16 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.80%E -0.745%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -3.80%E -0.745%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-24 02:47 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.99%EV -3.45%E -2.90%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 5.07I 19.72%NM 19.01%EV -4.36%E -0.861%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-04-23 09:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.78%EV -3.45%E -2.90%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -5.69%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-23 22:13 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.69%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 09:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.69%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-21 10:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.07%E -4.33%K -29.82%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -5.69%E -1.14%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-23 19:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.17%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.83%EV -8.51%E -1.76%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-21 13:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.83%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.17%EV -10.40%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 22:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -4.26%E -3.61%K -23.66%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -10.40%E -2.19%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 07:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.63%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.37%EV -11.53%E -2.46%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -4.26%E -3.61%K -23.66%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -13.23%E -2.88%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 22:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -3.45%E -2.90%K -18.14%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -14.17%E -3.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.12%E -3.36%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 13:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -15.12%E -3.36%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-21 18:44 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -2.64%E -2.20%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -20.78%E -4.95%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 83.61% | 6.12I 16.34%NM 16.39% | -0.3% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 81.82% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.18% | 1.9% | 2026-04-23 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 82.37% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.63% | 2.0% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
| Novig◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 80.13% | 4.88I 20.49%NM 19.87% | 3.1% | 2026-04-24 03:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.32% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.68% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 09:19 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.63% | 4.71I 21.23%NM 19.53% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.7% | 2026-04-22 20:05 |