The School of Odds
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Francis Marshall v Dakota Hope

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 23:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francis Marshall (Local)

Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -4.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%64.79%64.47%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.471.491.5173.53%67.96%67.11%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dakota Hope (Visit)

Prediction 35.35%2.83fair odd
EV +4.29%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +2.20%
Growth +0.095%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.18%35.21%35.53%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.692.652.9542.02%37.23%37.74%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francis Marshall (Local): 64.65%; Dakota Hope (Visit): 35.35%. For Dakota Hope (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.29%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -9.50%E -6.78%K -23.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +4.29%E +1.46%K +2.20%G +0.095%5.3%2026-10-31 23:35
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -7.56%E -5.28%K -17.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +2.53%E +0.871%K +1.33%G +0.034%4.4%2026-10-31 23:35
ReBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.89%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.11%EV -0.302%E -0.107%K -0.166%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 11:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.26%E -4.32%K -13.92%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.01%E -0.361%K -0.561%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-30 23:03
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.20%E -5.78%K -19.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -1.01%E -0.361%K -0.561%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-31 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -2.42%E -0.878%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-31 21:20
Coolbet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.32%E -2.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-31 23:25
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -2.78%E -1.01%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-29 11:15
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.47%EV -2.38%E -1.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.53%EV -3.13%E -1.14%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.7%2026-10-31 19:50
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.24%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.76%EV -3.13%E -1.14%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-31 21:18
BetAnything🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 22:50
DraftKings🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 18:09
Caesars🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 16:04
BetUS🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-31 23:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.97%E -3.38%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -4.54%E -1.68%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.80%EV -4.90%E -1.82%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-31 23:35
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.96%EV -2.38%E -1.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.04%EV -5.25%E -1.96%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-31 20:04
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 23:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 15:05
888sport🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.97%E -3.38%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 15:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.48%EV -5.62%E -3.85%K -12.21%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.52%EV -6.31%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 18:20
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -3.68%E -2.47%K -7.50%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 15:05
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 21:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.62%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -7.02%E -2.67%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 21:20
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.91%E -4.80%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.37%E -2.81%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 21:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.03%E -2.02%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.08%E -3.11%K -5.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-31 23:20
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.64%EV -12.08%E -8.88%K -33.56%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.36%EV -15.86%E -6.66%K -11.49%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-31 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.31%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.69%0.1%2026-10-31 23:35
Novig◎1.53I 65.36%NM 65.15%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.85%0.3%2026-10-31 23:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%0.5%2026-10-31 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%0.7%2026-10-31 23:35
Polymarket◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.35%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.65%0.9%2026-10-31 21:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.14%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.86%1.0%2026-10-31 23:35
ProphetX◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.13%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.87%1.7%2026-10-31 23:30
Kalshi◎1.52I 65.79%NM 64.65%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.35%1.8%2026-10-31 23:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53%2.66I 37.59%NM 34.63%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84%8.6%2026-10-31 18:30

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