Language:English
Felipe Franco v Brendson Ribeiro
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Felipe Franco (Local)
Prediction 77.13%1.30fair odd
EV -2.04%
Edge -1.61%
Kelly -7.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.27
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.49%76.98%77.41%78.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.241.251.2786.21%80.70%80.00%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brendson Ribeiro (Visit)
Prediction 22.87%4.37fair odd
EV +2.67%
Edge +0.595%
Kelly +0.766%
Growth +0.020%
assuming max odds 4.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.64%23.02%22.59%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.044.004.4928.57%24.72%25.00%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Felipe Franco (Local): 77.13%; Brendson Ribeiro (Visit): 22.87%. For Brendson Ribeiro (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.37. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.67%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.36%EV -4.35%E -3.51%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 4.49I 22.27%NM 21.64%EV +2.67%E +0.595%K +0.766%G +0.020% | 2.9% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.13%E -4.17%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.614%E +0.140%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 22:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -5.13%E -4.17%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV +0.614%E +0.140%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.0% | 2026-10-10 22:16 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +0.614%E +0.140%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +0.614%E +0.140%K +0.181%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -5.13%E -4.17%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV -0.529%E -0.122%K -0.158%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 22:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.35%E -3.51%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.82%E -0.663%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 22:13 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -4.35%E -3.51%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -2.82%E -0.663%K -0.867%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.13%E -4.17%K -22.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -3.96%E -0.943%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -2.81%E -2.23%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -6.25%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-10 21:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.35%E -3.51%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -6.25%E -1.52%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.59%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 23.41%EV -6.47%E -1.58%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 22:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -8.53%E -2.13%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.11%EV -4.35%E -3.51%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -9.68%E -2.45%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -2.04%E -1.61%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -13.11%E -3.45%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -2.81%E -2.23%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-10 14:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-10 22:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 21:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 21:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -5.90%E -4.83%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -14.25%E -3.80%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 21:15 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.49%EV -3.58%E -2.87%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -16.54%E -4.53%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.11%EV -10.53%E -9.07%K -65.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.89%EV -19.97%E -5.70%K -7.99%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 79.21% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.55% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 21.45% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67% | 0.2% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.86% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82% | 0.7% | 2026-10-10 21:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82% | 0.7% | 2026-10-10 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.25I 80.00%NM 78.99% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 21.01% | 1.3% | 2026-10-10 22:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.89% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 23.26% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 16:15 |