The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Farid Basharat v Ethyn Ewing

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Farid Basharat (Local)

Prediction 46.02%2.17fair odd
EV -0.607%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.75%45.94%45.99%47.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.062.052.1650.51%48.57%48.78%46.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ethyn Ewing (Visit)

Prediction 53.98%1.85fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.66%54.06%54.01%56.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.791.8059.52%56.57%56.02%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Farid Basharat (Local): 46.02%; Ethyn Ewing (Visit): 53.98%. For Farid Basharat (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.17. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.16, with an expected value of -0.607%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -0.607%E -0.281%K -0.523%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -9.31%E -5.54%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 20:40
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -1.07%E -0.496%K -0.928%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -9.31%E -5.54%K -13.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 20:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 18:36
Coolbet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 13:40
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 15:01
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 15:01
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.61%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 16:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.61%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 16:19
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-29 15:10
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.83%E -1.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 19:09
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:49
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -8.89%E -4.49%K -9.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -3.91%E -2.20%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 05:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-06-29 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.89%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.33%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%9.0%2026-06-30 07:29

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.