The School of Odds

Farid Basharat v Ethyn Ewing

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 21:50 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Farid Basharat (Local)

Prediction 46.02%2.17fair odd
EV -0.607%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.523%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.75%45.94%45.99%47.34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.982.062.052.1651%49%49%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Ethyn Ewing (Visit)

Prediction 53.98%1.85fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.66%54.06%54.01%56.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.791.8060%57%56%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -0.607%E -0.281%K -0.523%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -9.31%E -5.54%K -13.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 20:40
SportsBet2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -1.07%E -0.496%K -0.928%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -9.31%E -5.54%K -13.68%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-29 20:40
BetOnline.ag2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 18:36
Coolbet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-29 13:40
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 15:01
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-29 15:01
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.61%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 16:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.37%E -1.60%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.61%E -3.82%K -9.05%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 16:19
Pinnacle2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -4.29%E -2.06%K -3.97%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-29 15:10
DraftKings2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.83%E -1.57%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 18:40
PointsBet (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -4.45%E -2.51%K -5.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 18:50
Betr (AU)2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -5.67%E -2.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV -4.99%E -2.83%K -6.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 19:09
Grosvenor2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Virgin Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
LiveScore Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:49
LeoVegas2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
Bally Bet2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:49
ATG (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 17:50
betPARX2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -7.05%E -3.49%K -6.91%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -3.37%E -1.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-29 18:00
Unibet (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -8.89%E -4.49%K -9.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -3.91%E -2.20%K -5.01%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-30 05:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.51%1.0%2026-06-29 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%1.03I 97.09%NM 50.00%94.2%2026-06-30 01:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.09I 47.85%NM 43.89%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.33%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.78%9.0%2026-06-30 07:29