Language:English
Fares Ziam v Tom Nolan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fares Ziam (Local)
Prediction 73.25%1.37fair odd
EV -3.31%
Edge -2.51%
Kelly -10.34%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.05%73.30%73.32%75.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.301.301.3278.74%77.10%76.92%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Tom Nolan (Visit)
Prediction 26.75%3.74fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +1.11%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.064%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.56%26.70%26.68%27.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.523.9030.30%28.06%28.37%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fares Ziam (Local): 73.25%; Tom Nolan (Visit): 26.75%. For Tom Nolan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.32%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -6.97%E -5.49%K -25.81%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV +4.32%E +1.11%K +1.49%G +0.064% | 4.4% | 2026-06-07 00:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV +1.37%E +0.363%K +0.493%G +0.007% | 3.9% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -6.97%E -5.49%K -25.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV +0.305%E +0.081%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.71%EV -3.31%E -2.51%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.29%EV -1.03%E -0.279%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -1.03%E -0.279%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.24%E -4.87%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.03%E -0.279%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -6.24%E -4.87%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -1.03%E -0.279%K -0.382%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.44%EV -3.31%E -2.51%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV -2.37%E -0.649%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -2.37%E -0.649%K -0.894%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-07 00:58 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.73%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -3.17%E -0.876%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.71%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -5.04%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.50%E -4.27%K -18.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.38%E -1.82%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.04%E -3.08%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -7.72%E -2.24%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -7.72%E -2.24%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -4.77%E -3.67%K -15.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.06%E -2.66%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -6.24%E -4.87%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV -10.39%E -3.10%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -6.24%E -4.87%K -22.28%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -11.73%E -3.56%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-07 00:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 0.2% | 2026-06-07 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-06-07 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 0.7% | 2026-06-07 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.85% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15% | 0.9% | 2026-06-07 01:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.27% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.73% | 1.1% | 2026-06-07 01:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.35% | 3.49I 28.65%NM 26.78% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-06-07 00:58 |