Language:English
Fares Ziam v Axel Sola
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fares Ziam (Local)
Prediction 57.89%1.73fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%57.87%57.89%59.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.641.641.6866.67%61.10%60.98%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Axel Sola (Visit)
Prediction 42.11%2.37fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.439%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%42.13%42.11%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.062.252.252.3548.54%44.50%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fares Ziam (Local): 57.89%; Axel Sola (Visit): 42.11%. For Axel Sola (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -1.03%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -2.75%E -1.64%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-01 20:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.75%E -1.64%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -5.66%E -2.53%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.14%EV -2.75%E -1.64%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.86%EV -5.66%E -2.53%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-03 16:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -3.14%E -1.36%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-03 12:06 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -4.82%E -2.13%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.33%E -1.99%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.35%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 11:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.91%E -2.35%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.14%E -1.36%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-09-04 13:37 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.22%EV -3.91%E -2.35%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.78%EV -6.51%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -2.72%E -1.18%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-04 09:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.14%E -1.36%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 03:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 03:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.49%E -2.72%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-03 03:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-28 12:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.07%E -3.09%K -7.92%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 15:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.98%E -1.75%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -3.98%E -1.75%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 12:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-04 12:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.88%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.12%EV -5.66%E -2.53%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 13:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.66%EV -5.65%E -3.46%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.34%EV -6.51%E -2.93%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.03%E -0.439%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 22:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 11:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 12:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -5.66%E -2.53%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.04%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -7.35%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-03 21:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.24%E -2.33%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 13:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.35%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.35%E -3.34%K -6.12%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-04 13:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.87%EV -13.17%E -8.78%K -26.34%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 42.13%EV -13.25%E -6.43%K -12.50%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-08-29 15:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.19% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.81% | 0.5% | 2026-09-04 14:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-09-04 02:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77% | 4.1% | 2026-09-04 09:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.36% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 41.77% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.9% | 2026-09-03 11:55 |