Language:English
Fabia Sintes v Michael Aljarouj
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fabia Sintes (Local)
Prediction 47.11%2.12fair odd
EV +5.99%
Edge +2.66%
Kelly +4.79%
Growth +0.287%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%47.08%47.12%48.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.022.2554.05%49.43%49.50%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Aljarouj (Visit)
Prediction 52.89%1.89fair odd
EV -0.034%
Edge -0.018%
Kelly -0.038%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.89
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.16%52.92%52.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.791.791.8961.73%55.91%55.71%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fabia Sintes (Local): 47.11%; Michael Aljarouj (Visit): 52.89%. For Fabia Sintes (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.99%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +5.99%E +2.66%K +4.79%G +0.287% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -14.31%E -8.84%K -23.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 09:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -0.131%E -0.062%K -0.117%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -6.91%E -3.93%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-31 17:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.07%E -0.511%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.38%E -3.60%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.07%E -0.511%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -6.38%E -3.60%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-03 17:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -1.07%E -0.511%K -0.976%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -9.03%E -5.25%K -12.54%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 20:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 12:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-03 17:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.85%E -3.29%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-03 12:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.43%E -1.67%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.44%E -4.25%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-03 10:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -4.37%E -2.15%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -3.21%E -1.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-03 10:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:18 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -4.84%E -2.40%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-04 05:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.66%EV -5.31%E -2.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.34%EV -3.21%E -1.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-04 12:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 47.24%EV -5.31%E -2.64%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.76%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 11:19 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.21%E -1.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-03 10:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.21%E -1.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 10:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:53 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 10:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 05:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-03 12:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.78%E -2.89%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.38%E -3.60%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 11:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 47.35%EV -6.26%E -3.14%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.65%EV -5.32%E -2.97%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-03 10:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.84%EV -6.73%E -3.40%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.16%EV -0.034%E -0.018%K -0.038%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 11:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.73%E -3.40%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.15%E -1.16%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-04 10:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.73%E -3.40%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.21%E -1.75%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 12:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.14%E -4.17%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.79%E -2.66%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-03 15:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.14%EV -12.85%E -6.95%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 52.86%EV -12.73%E -7.71%K -19.58%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-09-04 05:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.19I 45.66%NM 45.66% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 54.34% | 0.0% | 2026-09-03 13:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 1.0% | 2026-09-04 10:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93% | 2.1% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16% | 2.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| Novig◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44% | 3.1% | 2026-09-04 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 11:30 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.72% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.45% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83% | 9.2% | 2026-09-04 12:45 |