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Fabia Sintes v Michael Aljarouj

2026-09-05 16:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fabia Sintes (Local)

Prediction 42.52%2.35fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.772%
Kelly -1.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.67%42.63%42.57%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.192.202.3148.08%45.61%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michael Aljarouj (Visit)

Prediction 57.48%1.74fair odd
EV -0.556%
Edge -0.321%
Kelly -0.761%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%57.37%57.43%58.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.671.671.7363.69%59.86%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fabia Sintes (Local): 42.52%; Michael Aljarouj (Visit): 57.48%. For Michael Aljarouj (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.74. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.73, with an expected value of -0.556%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -1.78%E -0.772%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-26 12:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.21%E -0.961%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-26 12:54
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -2.21%E -0.961%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-26 15:34
BetUS🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -3.91%E -1.73%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-26 12:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
Unibet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:03
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:04
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.46%E -2.94%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.00%E -2.40%K -5.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-26 15:03
Unibet (UK)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -7.31%E -3.35%K -6.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -5.15%E -3.12%K -7.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-26 17:55
ReBet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -7.74%E -3.57%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -5.73%E -3.49%K -8.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-26 17:54
FanDuel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -8.16%E -3.78%K -7.04%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -2.28%E -1.34%K -3.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-26 12:55
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.71%E -5.10%K -9.74%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.556%E -0.321%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-26 12:53
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.71%E -5.10%K -9.74%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.556%E -0.321%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-26 12:53
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -10.71%E -5.10%K -9.74%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -1.13%E -0.657%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-26 12:54
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.01%EV -11.56%E -5.56%K -10.71%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.99%EV -9.75%E -6.21%K -17.11%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-26 15:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.89%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.20%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.91%4.1%2026-08-26 16:54