The School of Odds

Ezra Elliott v Megan Anderson

2026-07-18 21:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ezra Elliott (Local)

Prediction 41.73%2.40fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.823%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.81%41.73%41.73%41.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.282.292.282.3544%44%44%43%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Megan Anderson (Visit)

Prediction 58.27%1.72fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -5.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%58.27%58.27%59.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.631.631.6562%61%61%61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.93%E -0.823%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-16 13:00
DraftKings2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.85%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-16 07:40
Bally Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:20
LiveScore Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:20
Unibet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:20
Virgin Bet2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:19
BetRivers2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:19
Grosvenor2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:19
TABtouch2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:20
betPARX2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:20
ATG (SE)2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.86%E -2.13%K -3.79%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 13:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.80%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.48%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.72%5.6%2026-07-16 09:05