The School of Odds
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Ezra Elliott v Megan Anderson

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ezra Elliott (Local)

Prediction 44.07%2.27fair odd
EV +0.490%
Edge +0.215%
Kelly +0.383%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%44.09%44.42%45.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.122.102.2848.08%47.08%47.62%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Megan Anderson (Visit)

Prediction 55.93%1.79fair odd
EV -0.453%
Edge -0.254%
Kelly -0.580%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.24%55.91%55.58%57.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.741.7860.61%57.96%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ezra Elliott (Local): 44.07%; Megan Anderson (Visit): 55.93%. For Ezra Elliott (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.490%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV +0.490%E +0.215%K +0.383%G +0.002%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -7.16%E -4.32%K -10.85%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-16 19:00
Caesars🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.15%E -0.970%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.49%E -3.25%K -7.95%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 23:38
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.04%E -1.38%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.60%E -3.95%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 20:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.04%E -1.38%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.72%E -4.68%K -11.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-16 18:25
Bovada🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.36%E -2.01%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.81%E -2.21%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 02:26
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.24%E -2.44%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.93%E -2.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 03:35
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.68%E -2.65%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.69%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-16 22:29
BetUS🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.68%E -2.65%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.69%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 01:45
FanDuel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.68%E -2.65%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.37%E -2.55%K -6.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 00:05
SportsBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -6.12%E -2.87%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -3.81%E -2.21%K -5.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 00:05
Pinnacle🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76%EV -7.00%E -3.32%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -0.453%E -0.254%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 02:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -7.44%E -3.54%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -2.69%E -1.55%K -3.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-16 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.44%E -3.54%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.25%E -1.88%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 00:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.44%E -3.54%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.25%E -1.88%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 00:05
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.44%E -3.54%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.93%E -2.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 00:10
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.44%E -3.54%K -6.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.93%E -2.90%K -7.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 00:10
Bally Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 19:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 19:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -8.32%E -4.00%K -7.71%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -2.13%E -1.22%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-16 20:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%1.0%2026-07-17 03:40
Polymarket◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-07-17 02:10
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%4.0%2026-07-17 03:15
ProphetX◎2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%5.7%2026-07-17 02:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.43%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.72%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.1%2026-07-17 02:35