The School of Odds

Ezra Elliott v Damien Anderson

2026-07-18 21:10 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Ezra Elliott (Local)

Prediction 44.69%2.24fair odd
EV +1.89%
Edge +0.829%
Kelly +1.48%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%44.51%44.85%45.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.082.122.102.2848%47%48%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Damien Anderson (Visit)

Prediction 55.31%1.81fair odd
EV -1.55%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.24%55.49%55.15%57.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.731.731.7860%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV +1.89%E +0.829%K +1.48%G +0.028%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -8.18%E -4.93%K -12.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-17 03:50
Caesars2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -0.790%E -0.356%K -0.648%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -6.52%E -3.86%K -9.46%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 03:48
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -1.68%E -0.766%K -1.40%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.63%E -4.57%K -11.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 03:49
Bovada2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -3.02%E -1.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -4.87%E -2.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 03:48
BetUS2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.76%E -2.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 03:50
DraftKings2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.76%E -2.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-17 03:50
FanDuel2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.37%E -2.04%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.42%E -3.17%K -7.63%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
SportsBet2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -4.81%E -2.26%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -4.87%E -2.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 03:50
Bet Right2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.26%E -2.48%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.87%E -2.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-17 04:14
Pinnacle2.11I 47.39%NM 45.76%EV -5.71%E -2.70%K -5.14%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.24%EV -1.55%E -0.869%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-17 03:50
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.76%E -2.16%K -5.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-17 03:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.31%E -2.49%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 03:50
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.31%E -2.49%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 03:49
888sport2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.31%E -2.49%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 06:35
PointsBet (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.31%E -2.49%K -5.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-17 06:35
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.87%E -2.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-17 06:45
NordicBet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.97%E -3.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 03:50
Betsson2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.15%E -2.93%K -5.59%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.97%E -3.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 03:50
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
Virgin Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:49
Bally Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -3.21%E -1.83%K -4.27%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-17 03:50
Unibet (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -7.05%E -3.39%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -4.87%E -2.83%K -6.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-17 06:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%0.4%2026-07-17 07:39
Polymarket2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-07-17 07:30
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 47.56%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%3.1%2026-07-17 07:20
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%4.9%2026-07-17 07:40
ProphetX2.06I 48.54%NM 45.93%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%5.7%2026-07-17 03:50

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet2.09I 47.85%NM 44.17%1.71I 58.48%NM 53.98%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85%8.3%2026-07-17 07:25