The School of Odds
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Ezra Elliott v Damien Anderson

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 22:21 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ezra Elliott (Local)

Prediction 48.61%2.06fair odd
EV -0.357%
Edge -0.174%
Kelly -0.340%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.48%48.74%48.77%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.972.002.0554.05%50.78%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Damien Anderson (Visit)

Prediction 51.39%1.95fair odd
EV +1.76%
Edge +0.888%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 1.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%51.26%51.23%53.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.841.831.9856.50%54.21%54.64%50.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ezra Elliott (Local): 48.61%; Damien Anderson (Visit): 51.39%. For Damien Anderson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.98, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.76%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -10.08%E -5.45%K -11.86%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV +1.76%E +0.888%K +1.80%G +0.032%4.6%2026-07-18 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -9.11%E -4.87%K -10.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -0.297%E -0.153%K -0.315%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 22:20
FanDuel🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.70%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -1.84%E -0.962%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-18 22:20
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.16%E -3.75%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.84%E -0.962%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-18 22:15
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -5.70%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -2.35%E -1.24%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-18 22:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.03%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.35%E -1.24%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 22:15
Paddy Power🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.03%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.35%E -1.24%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 22:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -7.65%E -4.03%K -8.50%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -2.35%E -1.24%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 22:15
Pinnacle🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41%EV -2.87%E -1.52%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.9%2026-07-18 22:10
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.49%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-18 22:10
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.16%E -3.75%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-18 22:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.95%E -3.25%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-18 22:10
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.95%E -3.25%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-17 17:35
Bet Right🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.25%E -2.15%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.95%E -3.25%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 22:15
BetAnything🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.16%E -3.75%K -7.87%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.95%E -3.25%K -7.17%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-18 21:45
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
Bally Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.98%E -3.86%K -8.61%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 03:40
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.357%E -0.174%K -0.340%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 20:35
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.357%E -0.174%K -0.340%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-18 20:40
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-18 09:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-18 03:40
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -0.357%E -0.174%K -0.340%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -8.52%E -4.79%K -10.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -2.79%E -1.39%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -9.03%E -5.10%K -11.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-18 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.96I 51.02%NM 51.00%2.04I 49.02%NM 49.00%0.0%2026-07-18 22:19
Matchbook◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-07-18 22:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-07-18 22:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-07-18 22:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-07-18 22:20
Novig◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-18 22:20
Polymarket◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-18 22:20
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.98%2.1%2026-07-18 22:20
ProphetX◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%4.6%2026-07-18 22:20

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.33%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.83%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.83%9.0%2026-07-18 22:10