Language:English
Ethyn Ewing v Rafael Estevam
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ethyn Ewing (Local)
Prediction 68.84%1.45fair odd
EV +27.36%
Edge +14.79%
Kelly +32.19%
Growth +8.81%
assuming max odds 1.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.00%70.45%57.69%94.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.351.091.8599.01%74.32%91.74%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rafael Estevam (Visit)
Prediction 31.16%3.21fair odd
EV +492.00%
Edge +25.89%
Kelly +27.33%
Growth +134.48%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.09%29.55%42.31%48.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.956.895.5019.0051.28%14.51%18.18%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ethyn Ewing (Local): 68.84%; Rafael Estevam (Visit): 31.16%. For Rafael Estevam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 23 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 19.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +492.00%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +492.00%E +25.89%K +27.33%G +134.48% | 3.3% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +367.37%E +24.49%K +26.24%G +96.40% | 4.7% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV +367.37%E +24.49%K +26.24%G +96.40% | 4.7% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -29.09%E -28.25%K -969.75%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +305.05%E +23.47%K +25.42%G +77.55% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -29.09%E -28.25%K -969.75%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +305.05%E +23.47%K +25.42%G +77.55% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -30.47%E -30.17%K -3046.92%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV +305.05%E +23.47%K +25.42%G +77.55% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -28.40%E -27.31%K -710.10%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV +273.89%E +22.82%K +24.90%G +68.20% | 4.5% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -29.09%E -28.25%K -969.75%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +258.31%E +22.46%K +24.60%G +63.55% | 5.8% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +258.31%E +22.46%K +24.60%G +63.55% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +258.31%E +22.46%K +24.60%G +63.55% | 6.7% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -30.47%E -30.17%K -3046.92%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +242.73%E +22.07%K +24.27%G +58.92% | 8.1% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -27.72%E -26.40%K -554.31%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +227.16%E +21.63%K +23.91%G +54.32% | 4.8% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.59%EV -27.03%E -25.50%K -450.45%G +0.000% | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.41%EV +217.81%E +21.35%K +23.67%G +51.57% | 4.1% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -29.09%E -28.25%K -969.75%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +211.58%E +21.16%K +23.51%G +49.74% | 7.1% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -29.78%E -29.20%K -1489.04%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV +211.58%E +21.16%K +23.51%G +49.74% | 8.0% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.23%EV -28.40%E -27.31%K -710.10%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.77%EV +199.11%E +20.74%K +23.15%G +46.10% | 6.6% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -27.72%E -26.40%K -554.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +180.42%E +20.05%K +22.55%G +40.69% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 01:23 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -27.72%E -26.40%K -554.31%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV +180.42%E +20.05%K +22.55%G +40.69% | 6.3% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -26.34%E -24.62%K -376.27%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +164.84%E +19.39%K +21.98%G +36.23% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 01:23 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -27.03%E -25.50%K -450.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV +164.84%E +19.39%K +21.98%G +36.23% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 01:23 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 83.46%EV -24.96%E -22.90%K -277.35%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV +71.37%E +12.98%K +15.86%G +11.32% | 9.9% | 2026-04-05 01:23 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -16.01%E -13.12%K -72.78%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +24.63%E +6.16%K +8.21%G +2.02% | 7.0% | 2026-04-05 01:21 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 75.00%EV -20.83%E -18.11%K -138.88%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.00%EV +7.49%E +2.17%K +3.06%G +0.229% | 15.9% | 2026-04-05 01:21 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -13.95%E -11.16%K -55.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.41%EV -6.53%E -2.18%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-04-05 01:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.24%E -1.58%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -12.76%E -4.56%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-05 01:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV +13.59%E +8.24%K +20.91%G +2.84% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -29.90%E -13.29%K -23.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 18:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV +14.97%E +8.96%K +22.34%G +3.34% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -31.45%E -14.30%K -26.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 01:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +19.10%E +11.04%K +26.16%G +5.00% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -34.57%E -16.46%K -31.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-03 10:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV +23.23%E +12.98%K +29.40%G +6.83% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -35.50%E -17.15%K -33.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-05 01:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV +23.23%E +12.98%K +29.40%G +6.83% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -35.50%E -17.15%K -33.18%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-05 01:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV +21.16%E +12.02%K +27.85%G +5.89% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -35.50%E -17.15%K -33.18%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-05 00:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV +27.36%E +14.79%K +32.19%G +8.81% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-04-05 01:09 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +23.92%E +13.29%K +29.90%G +7.15% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-05 00:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV +22.54%E +12.66%K +28.90%G +6.51% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 00:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV +22.54%E +12.66%K +28.90%G +6.51% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-05 00:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV +21.85%E +12.35%K +28.38%G +6.20% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-05 00:54 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.81%EV +21.16%E +12.02%K +27.85%G +5.89% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.19%EV -36.13%E -17.62%K -34.41%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 00:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV +25.29%E +13.90%K +30.85%G +7.80% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -37.06%E -18.35%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-05 01:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV +24.60%E +13.59%K +30.38%G +7.47% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -37.68%E -18.84%K -37.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-05 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV +23.92%E +13.29%K +29.90%G +7.15% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -37.68%E -18.84%K -37.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-05 01:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV +23.92%E +13.29%K +29.90%G +7.15% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -39.24%E -20.12%K -41.31%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-05 00:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.87% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.13% | 0.1% | 2026-04-05 01:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.13% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.87% | 0.6% | 2026-04-05 01:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.3% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89% | 4.9% | 2026-04-05 01:25 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 81.83% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17% | 10.1% | 2026-04-05 01:21 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 73.33% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 26.67% | 36.4% | 2026-04-05 01:24 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.18% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.96% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.5% | 2026-04-04 23:09 |