Language:English
Esteban Ribovics v Mateusz Gamrot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Esteban Ribovics (Local)
Prediction 32.81%3.05fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.555%
Kelly +0.819%
Growth +0.014%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.65%33.00%32.91%37.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.872.853.1040.00%34.89%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mateusz Gamrot (Visit)
Prediction 67.19%1.49fair odd
EV +0.780%
Edge +0.520%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.012%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.66%67.00%67.09%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.431.431.5072.99%69.94%69.93%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Esteban Ribovics (Local): 32.81%; Mateusz Gamrot (Visit): 67.19%. For Esteban Ribovics (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +1.72%E +0.555%K +0.819%G +0.014% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.94%E -4.24%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-11 23:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.72%E +0.555%K +0.819%G +0.014% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.28%E -5.28%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 23:28 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +1.72%E +0.555%K +0.819%G +0.014% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -7.95%E -5.81%K -21.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV +0.080%E +0.026%K +0.039%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -6.61%E -4.76%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-11 23:34 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.56%E -0.520%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.94%E -4.24%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 23:34 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -1.56%E -0.520%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.94%E -4.24%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 23:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.88%EV -2.87%E -0.971%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.12%EV -2.58%E -1.78%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-04-11 20:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.57%EV -2.87%E -0.971%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-11 23:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -3.20%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.59%E -3.24%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 23:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.84%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.59%E -3.24%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -4.84%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.59%E -3.24%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 23:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -5.50%E -1.91%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -3.25%E -2.26%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 23:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -6.15%E -2.15%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 23:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-11 22:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.59%E -3.24%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-11 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.48%E -2.27%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.94%E -4.24%K -14.85%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 21:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -8.12%E -2.90%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -1.91%E -1.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 19:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -8.12%E -2.90%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -1.91%E -1.31%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 19:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -8.12%E -2.90%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -3.92%E -2.74%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-11 23:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -9.76%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -0.563%E -0.381%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-04-11 15:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.76%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.25%E -2.26%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 15:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.76%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.25%E -2.26%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 15:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -9.76%E -3.55%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.25%E -2.26%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 16:58 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -13.05%E -4.92%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV +0.780%E +0.520%K +1.56%G +0.012% | 4.4% | 2026-04-11 22:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -17.97%E -7.19%K -11.98%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV +0.109%E +0.073%K +0.222%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.16I 31.65%NM 31.60% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.40% | 0.1% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48% | 0.8% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 23:15 |
| Novig◎ | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.86% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.14% | 1.9% | 2026-04-11 23:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.73% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 67.27% | 2.5% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72% | 3.3% | 2026-04-11 23:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.81I 35.59%NM 32.76% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.42% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 22:39 |