The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Ernesta Kareckaite v Melissa Gatto

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 21:13 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ernesta Kareckaite (Local)

Prediction 46.87%2.13fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.74%47.08%46.75%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.022.042.1054.05%49.54%49.02%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Melissa Gatto (Visit)

Prediction 53.13%1.88fair odd
EV +0.946%
Edge +0.498%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%52.92%53.25%54.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.791.781.9061.35%55.94%56.18%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ernesta Kareckaite (Local): 46.87%; Melissa Gatto (Visit): 53.13%. For Melissa Gatto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.88. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.946%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -10.95%E -5.76%K -12.16%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +0.946%E +0.498%K +1.05%G +0.010%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Betsson🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -11.41%E -6.04%K -12.83%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV +0.414%E +0.219%K +0.466%G +0.002%5.8%2026-10-10 14:01
FanDuel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -2.77%E -1.52%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 20:40
Caesars🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.77%E -1.52%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-10 20:30
Bet Right🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -6.73%E -3.38%K -6.80%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -3.30%E -1.82%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 20:30
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.41%EV -2.04%E -0.976%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.59%EV -3.84%E -2.12%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-10 21:00
Coolbet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -3.45%E -1.67%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 21:10
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 21:00
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 20:15
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 20:50
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-10 20:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -5.32%E -2.63%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 20:20
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 14:00
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 20:15
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.60%E -4.41%K -9.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.37%E -2.43%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-10 14:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 46.13%EV -2.04%E -0.976%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.87%EV -4.90%E -2.74%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 20:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 20:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 13:59
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:00
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.60%EV -4.38%E -2.15%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.40%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-10 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -5.43%E -3.05%K -6.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-10 20:20
ReBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.57%E -0.748%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.96%E -3.37%K -7.74%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-10 20:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.92%E -1.91%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -5.96%E -3.37%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -2.51%E -1.21%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -6.49%E -3.69%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-10 20:20
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.09%E -4.67%K -11.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:40
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.09%E -4.67%K -11.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 21:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -6.26%E -3.13%K -6.26%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.09%E -4.67%K -11.08%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 20:40
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.84%EV -13.29%E -7.18%K -15.63%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 53.16%EV -13.40%E -8.22%K -21.27%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎2.19I 45.66%NM 45.66%1.84I 54.35%NM 54.34%0.0%2026-10-10 21:04
Matchbook◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.50%1.86I 53.76%NM 53.50%0.5%2026-10-10 21:00
Novig◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-10-10 21:10
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.48%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.52%1.0%2026-10-10 18:55
Polymarket◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61%1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39%1.0%2026-10-10 21:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.84%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.16%1.7%2026-10-10 21:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.70%1.84I 54.35%NM 53.30%2.0%2026-10-10 21:10
ProphetX◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.07%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.93%2.1%2026-10-10 21:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.00%98.0%2026-10-10 21:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.95%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.37%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.69%9.4%2026-10-10 18:15