Language:English
Erik Silva v Francis Marshall
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Erik Silva (Local)
Prediction 14.28%7.00fair odd
EV +21.40%
Edge +2.52%
Kelly +2.85%
Growth +0.611%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.27%14.10%14.23%15.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.676.758.5016.67%14.98%14.81%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Francis Marshall (Visit)
Prediction 85.72%1.17fair odd
EV -2.28%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -16.30%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.15%85.90%85.77%88.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1492.59%89.62%89.29%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Erik Silva (Local): 14.28%; Francis Marshall (Visit): 85.72%. For Erik Silva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.00. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.40%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +21.40%E +2.52%K +2.85%G +0.611% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -7.43%E -6.88%K -92.81%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.26%EV +11.40%E +1.46%K +1.68%G +0.191% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.74%EV -6.57%E -6.03%K -72.98%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Caesars🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV +7.12%E +0.949%K +1.10%G +0.078% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.21%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.11%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 22:26 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV +7.12%E +0.949%K +1.10%G +0.078% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -6.57%E -6.03%K -72.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +3.55%E +0.489%K +0.568%G +0.020% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 22:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.90%EV -0.022%E -0.003%K -0.004%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.10%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-02-28 20:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 19:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV -3.59%E -0.532%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 21:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.32%EV -4.31%E -0.643%K -0.756%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.68%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-28 21:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 6.65I 15.04%NM 14.08%EV -5.02%E -0.755%K -0.889%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.92%EV -6.57%E -6.03%K -72.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-02-28 22:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.16%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 13:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.16%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -7.16%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-28 20:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -7.16%E -1.10%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.71%E -5.19%K -57.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-28 22:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -8.59%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-02-28 20:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -8.59%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.12%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-02-28 17:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -10.73%E -1.72%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.57%EV -2.28%E -2.00%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-02-28 21:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.73%E -1.72%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-25 15:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.73%E -1.72%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-25 15:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -10.73%E -1.72%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-28 20:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -10.73%E -1.72%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -4.85%E -4.37%K -44.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-28 20:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.64%EV -12.16%E -1.98%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.36%EV -2.28%E -2.00%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-02-24 20:25 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -14.30%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -3.14%E -2.78%K -24.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-28 20:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.30%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-24 14:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.30%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-28 20:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -14.30%E -2.38%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.00%E -3.57%K -33.30%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-26 13:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 7.95I 12.58%NM 12.54% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.46% | 0.3% | 2026-02-28 21:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 0.5% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| Matchbook◎ | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.65% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.35% | 1.3% | 2026-02-28 22:30 |
| Novig◎ | 8.26I 12.11%NM 11.94% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 88.06% | 1.4% | 2026-02-28 22:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 1.7% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
| ProphetX◎ | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.09% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.91% | 1.8% | 2026-02-28 22:29 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.69% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.47% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.9% | 2026-02-28 18:39 |