The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Eoin Sheridan v James Vake

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 21:40 UTC

Final: Eoin Sheridan 1–0 James Vake

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eoin Sheridan (Local)

Prediction 83.44%1.20fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -20.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.30%83.44%83.44%84.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.141.141.1687.72%87.50%87.72%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

James Vake (Visit)

Prediction 16.56%6.04fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.203%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.75%16.56%16.56%17.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.595.506.1018.87%17.90%18.18%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eoin Sheridan (Local): 83.44%; James Vake (Visit): 16.56%. For James Vake (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV +1.03%E +0.170%K +0.203%G +0.002%4.1%2026-08-22 21:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -0.622%E -0.104%K -0.124%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-22 21:30
FanDuel🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -3.21%E -2.77%K -20.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -7.25%E -1.29%K -1.58%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 12:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.90%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 13:15
Grosvenor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -12.22%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 22:10
Unibet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -12.22%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 22:15
Bally Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.30%EV -4.88%E -4.28%K -34.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -12.22%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.