The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Eoghan Masoliver v Shane Mullen

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 19:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eoghan Masoliver (Local)

Prediction 89.77%1.11fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -38.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%89.77%89.88%90.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.041.071.081.0896.15%93.46%92.59%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Shane Mullen (Visit)

Prediction 10.23%9.78fair odd
EV +7.39%
Edge +0.704%
Kelly +0.778%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.01%10.23%10.12%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.477.5010.5013.33%11.81%13.33%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eoghan Masoliver (Local): 89.77%; Shane Mullen (Visit): 10.23%. For Shane Mullen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.78. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -6.64%E -6.38%K -165.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +7.39%E +0.704%K +0.778%G +0.057%5.7%2026-04-16 19:14
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -6.64%E -6.38%K -165.91%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +7.39%E +0.704%K +0.778%G +0.057%5.7%2026-04-16 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.94%E -3.69%K -56.33%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -2.84%E -0.299%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-16 19:14
BetMGM🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.84%E -4.57%K -80.68%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.84%E -0.299%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-16 19:15
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.48%EV -3.94%E -3.69%K -56.33%G +0.000%9.10I 10.99%NM 10.52%EV -6.93%E -0.762%K -0.856%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-16 19:14
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.05%E -2.82%K -38.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -23.29%E -3.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-16 19:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.