The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Emiliano Sordi v Abraham Bably

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 02:00 UTC

Final: Emiliano Sordi 1–0 Abraham Bably

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Emiliano Sordi (Local)

Prediction 33.72%2.97fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.64%33.72%33.72%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.772.842.8638.46%36.14%35.21%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Abraham Bably (Visit)

Prediction 66.28%1.51fair odd
EV -0.582%
Edge -0.388%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%66.28%66.28%66.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.471.451.5068.97%68.18%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Emiliano Sordi (Local): 33.72%; Abraham Bably (Visit): 66.28%. For Abraham Bably (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -0.582%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -3.56%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -3.90%E -2.69%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-17 00:40
FanDuel🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.23%E -1.49%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.90%E -2.69%K -8.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 20:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -12.33%E -4.74%K -7.70%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -0.582%E -0.388%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-16 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.