The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Elijah Smith v Su Young You

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 23:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Elijah Smith (Local)

Prediction 69.60%1.44fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -4.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.29%69.59%69.54%70.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.361.4175.19%72.99%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Su Young You (Visit)

Prediction 30.40%3.29fair odd
EV +0.308%
Edge +0.093%
Kelly +0.134%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.03%30.41%30.46%32.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.113.103.3034.72%32.11%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elijah Smith (Local): 69.60%; Su Young You (Visit): 30.40%. For Su Young You (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.308%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.04%E -4.47%K -17.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +0.308%E +0.093%K +0.134%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 16:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.04%E -4.47%K -17.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +0.308%E +0.093%K +0.134%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-14 16:25
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 21:13
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:04
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-14 15:05
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.43%E -5.58%K -22.51%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.21%E -0.373%K -0.538%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-14 19:40
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%EV -2.56%E -1.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV -2.73%E -0.853%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-14 21:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.04%E -4.47%K -17.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.73%E -0.853%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 22:00
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.74%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.26%EV -3.34%E -1.05%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-14 22:25
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.33%EV -3.64%E -1.15%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-14 22:14
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.25%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 19:35
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.25%E -1.35%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 22:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.56%E -1.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 22:30
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.25%E -2.34%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-14 21:50
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.64%E -3.39%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.64%E -3.39%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.64%E -3.39%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-14 14:10
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-13 08:24
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.34%E -3.93%K -14.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.77%E -1.86%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.39%EV -1.86%E -1.32%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.61%EV -7.29%E -2.39%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-14 21:25
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.55%EV -3.25%E -2.34%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.45%EV -7.90%E -2.61%K -3.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-14 21:25
BetAnything🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.95%E -2.86%K -10.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 23:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.64%E -3.39%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -8.81%E -2.94%K -4.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-14 20:05
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.56%E -1.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.85%E -4.09%K -6.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-13 13:59
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.56%E -1.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -12.46%E -4.33%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 21:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -2.56%E -1.83%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -12.46%E -4.33%K -6.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.43I 69.93%NM 70.02%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.98%-0.1%2026-03-14 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-03-14 22:55
Matchbook◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.3%2026-03-14 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-03-14 23:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 70.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.79%1.7%2026-03-14 22:55
ProphetX◎1.38I 72.46%NM 70.51%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.49%2.8%2026-03-14 22:45
Novig◎1.36I 73.53%NM 70.88%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.12%3.7%2026-03-14 22:55