Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eliezer Kubanza v Trey Waters

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 02:25 UTC

Final: Eliezer Kubanza 1–0 Trey Waters

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eliezer Kubanza (Local)

Prediction 58.30%1.72fair odd

EV -2.06%

Edge -1.23%

Kelly -3.03%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.25%58.30%58.30%61.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.611.611.6864.52%61.98%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trey Waters (Visit)

Prediction 41.70%2.40fair odd

EV +2.17%

Edge +0.886%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.75%41.70%41.70%43.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.162.352.452.4546.30%42.49%40.82%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eliezer Kubanza (Local): 58.30%; Trey Waters (Visit): 41.70%. For Trey Waters (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -6.14%E -3.81%K -10.07%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +2.17%E +0.886%K +1.50%G +0.033%	2.9%	2026-10-17 01:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -9.64%E -6.22%K -17.53%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV +2.17%E +0.886%K +1.50%G +0.033%	5.3%	2026-10-16 23:59
FanDuel🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.25%EV -2.06%E -1.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.75%EV -9.92%E -4.59%K -8.55%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-10-17 02:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.