The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Eliezer Kubanza v Chris Mixan

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 02:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eliezer Kubanza (Local)

Prediction 57.03%1.75fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.769%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.11%57.03%56.78%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.681.701.7364.94%59.63%58.82%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chris Mixan (Visit)

Prediction 42.97%2.33fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%42.97%43.22%45.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.132.102.2549.02%46.95%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eliezer Kubanza (Local): 57.03%; Chris Mixan (Visit): 42.97%. For Eliezer Kubanza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.73, with an expected value of -1.33%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -1.33%E -0.769%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.35%E -6.05%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 15:00
Unibet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -1.33%E -0.769%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.35%E -6.05%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 15:00
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -1.33%E -0.769%K -1.82%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.35%E -6.05%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 15:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -3.04%E -1.79%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -4.62%E -2.08%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-26 02:00
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.61%E -2.14%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.62%E -2.08%K -3.78%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-26 01:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.60%E -4.69%K -12.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.33%E -1.48%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 02:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.69%EV -12.17%E -7.90%K -22.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.31%EV -9.77%E -4.65%K -8.88%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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