The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Eduardo Neves v Maxwell Djantou Nana

Kickoff: 2026-08-07 22:53 UTC

Final: Eduardo Neves 0–1 Maxwell Djantou Nana

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eduardo Neves (Local)

Prediction 43.68%2.29fair odd
EV +1.34%
Edge +0.577%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.05%43.68%43.68%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3247.62%44.81%44.44%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maxwell Djantou Nana (Visit)

Prediction 56.32%1.78fair odd
EV -0.314%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.408%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%56.32%56.32%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.631.7764.52%61.22%61.54%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eduardo Neves (Local): 43.68%; Maxwell Djantou Nana (Visit): 56.32%. For Eduardo Neves (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV +1.34%E +0.577%K +1.01%G +0.014%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -12.70%E -8.20%K -23.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 22:50
Unibet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV +1.34%E +0.577%K +1.01%G +0.014%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -12.70%E -8.20%K -23.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-07 22:49
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV +0.465%E +0.202%K +0.358%G +0.002%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -7.64%E -4.66%K -11.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 22:50
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.90%E -1.77%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.33%E -5.79%K -15.29%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-05 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.38%E -3.20%K -7.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 22:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -8.27%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -0.314%E -0.178%K -0.408%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 22:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.