Language:English
Edson Barboza v Esteban Ribovics
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Edson Barboza (Local)
Prediction 15.21%6.57fair odd
EV +1.92%
Edge +0.287%
Kelly +0.337%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.32%15.28%15.31%17.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.066.006.7018.52%16.49%16.67%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Esteban Ribovics (Visit)
Prediction 84.79%1.18fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -23.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.83%84.72%84.69%85.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.131.1492.59%88.93%88.50%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Edson Barboza (Local): 15.21%; Esteban Ribovics (Visit): 84.79%. For Edson Barboza (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.57. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.92%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReBet🎯 | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.32%EV +1.92%E +0.287%K +0.337%G +0.006% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.68%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-16 01:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.62I 15.11%NM 14.69%EV +0.706%E +0.107%K +0.126%G +0.001% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 85.31%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 6.61I 15.13%NM 14.49%EV +0.554%E +0.084%K +0.099%G +0.001% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.51%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 01:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.12%E -0.172%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 01:13 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.12%E -0.172%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 01:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.12%E -0.172%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-16 00:16 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.12%E -0.172%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-15 20:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.12%E -0.172%K -0.204%G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.89%E -5.30%K -53.51%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 00:44 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.45I 15.50%NM 14.91%EV -1.88%E -0.292%K -0.345%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 85.09%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-15 22:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 6.32I 15.82%NM 15.28%EV -3.86%E -0.610%K -0.725%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.72%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-15 23:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.31%EV -4.92%E -0.788%K -0.938%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.69%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-15 19:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.30%EV -5.68%E -0.917%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.70%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 20:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.52%EV -6.44%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.48%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.52%EV -6.44%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.48%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-15 20:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 6.15I 16.26%NM 15.41%EV -6.44%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.59%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV -7.20%E -1.18%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.49%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 15:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -7.97%E -1.32%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 01:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 02:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -8.73%E -1.45%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-15 19:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.71%EV -10.25%E -1.74%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.29%EV -6.73%E -6.12%K -67.34%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-15 12:08 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -11.77%E -2.03%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -6.73%E -6.12%K -67.34%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.53%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.19%E -3.71%K -32.23%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-13 23:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -12.53%E -2.18%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-15 23:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -13.29%E -2.33%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -6.73%E -6.12%K -67.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.33%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 14:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.33%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 14:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -16.33%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -3.34%E -2.93%K -23.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-15 16:08 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.33%E -2.97%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -5.04%E -4.50%K -41.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%EV -17.85%E -3.31%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 83.33%EV -8.43%E -7.80%K -105.37%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-15 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 7.38I 13.55%NM 13.58% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 86.42% | -0.2% | 2026-08-15 22:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 0.2% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.87% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 0.6% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Novig◎ | 6.90I 14.49%NM 14.39% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.61% | 0.7% | 2026-08-16 01:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 1.2% | 2026-08-15 14:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03% | 4.4% | 2026-08-16 01:15 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 6.05I 16.53%NM 15.33% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.81% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 23:19 |