Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Edson Barboza v Esteban Ribovics

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Edson Barboza (Local)

Prediction 23.30%4.29fair odd
EV -0.969%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.298%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.45%23.19%23.36%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.074.104.2525.97%24.55%24.39%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Esteban Ribovics (Visit)

Prediction 76.70%1.30fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -2.67%
Kelly -12.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.49%76.81%76.64%77.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.241.231.2681.97%80.94%81.30%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Edson Barboza (Local): 23.30%; Esteban Ribovics (Visit): 76.70%. For Edson Barboza (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.25, with an expected value of -0.969%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -0.969%E -0.228%K -0.298%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -5.66%E -4.60%K -24.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 15:24
888sport4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.13%E -0.508%K -0.667%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.43%E -5.27%K -29.22%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 15:25
BetOnline.ag4.16I 24.04%NM 23.11%EV -3.07%E -0.737%K -0.970%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.89%EV -4.13%E -3.30%K -16.51%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-04 13:19
Betr (AU)4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -3.30%E -0.795%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.43%E -5.27%K -29.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-04 15:30
DraftKings4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.46%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.13%E -3.30%K -16.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 21:09
Caesars4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.46%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.13%E -3.30%K -16.51%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 22:15
Pinnacle4.09I 24.45%NM 23.55%EV -4.70%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 76.45%EV -3.36%E -2.67%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-04 20:55
NordicBet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.79%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.43%E -5.27%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 20:39
Betsson4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -6.79%E -1.70%K -2.26%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.43%E -5.27%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 20:39
Unibet (UK)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -9.12%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -6.43%E -5.27%K -29.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 15:04
PlayUp3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -10.29%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.13%E -3.30%K -16.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig4.00I 25.00%NM 20.00%1.00I 100.00%NM 80.00%25.0%2026-08-04 21:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet4.13I 24.21%NM 22.58%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.60%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.83%7.2%2026-08-04 14:50