Language:English
Edgar Chairez v Felipe Bunes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Edgar Chairez (Local)
Prediction 70.73%1.41fair odd
EV -0.973%
Edge -0.695%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.18%70.70%70.84%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.331.331.4078.13%75.05%75.19%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felipe Bunes (Visit)
Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV +2.43%
Edge +0.695%
Kelly +0.973%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%29.30%29.16%31.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.363.5033.33%30.01%29.76%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Edgar Chairez (Local): 70.73%; Felipe Bunes (Visit): 29.27%. For Felipe Bunes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.43%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 3.8% | 2026-03-01 02:16 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -7.34%E -5.60%K -23.67%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 4.9% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +2.43%E +0.695%K +0.973%G +0.024% | 5.5% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.495%E -0.146%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-01 02:06 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.495%E -0.146%K -0.206%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 71.04%EV -3.09%E -2.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.96%EV -1.67%E -0.496%K -0.706%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -1.96%E -0.585%K -0.833%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.42%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 02:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV -3.42%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-01 02:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -9.46%E -7.39%K -33.79%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -3.42%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 02:17 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -8.05%E -6.19%K -26.82%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.52%EV -4.51%E -3.34%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 29.48%EV -5.47%E -1.69%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-01 02:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.09%E -2.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -6.35%E -1.98%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 02:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.22%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.35%E -1.98%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-01 02:07 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.30%EV -0.973%E -0.695%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.70%EV -7.52%E -2.38%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%EV -1.68%E -1.21%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%EV -7.81%E -2.48%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-01 02:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -1.68%E -1.21%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -9.28%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -0.973%E -0.695%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -10.45%E -3.41%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.74%E -3.52%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-01 02:20 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -0.973%E -0.695%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -12.20%E -4.07%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.80%E -2.80%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.20%E -4.07%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 02:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.80%E -2.80%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.20%E -4.07%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-01 02:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 0.4% | 2026-03-01 02:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-03-01 02:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.83% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.17% | 0.8% | 2026-03-01 02:14 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47% | 1.3% | 2026-03-01 02:18 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.25% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86% | 7.3% | 2026-03-01 02:07 |