The School of Odds

Dustin Jacoby v Muhammad Said

2026-07-25 15:15 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Dustin Jacoby (Local)

Prediction 59.28%1.69fair odd
EV -0.996%
Edge -0.596%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%59.24%59.19%61.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.511.601.601.6766%63%63%60%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Muhammad Said (Visit)

Prediction 40.72%2.46fair odd
EV -0.246%
Edge -0.100%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.90%40.76%40.81%42.86%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.372.4545%43%42%41%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -0.996%E -0.596%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -7.98%E -3.53%K -6.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 18:20
BetOnline.ag1.66I 60.24%NM 58.19%EV -1.59%E -0.957%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.81%EV -5.95%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-21 18:24
Caesars1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 16:21
BetAnything1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 20:20
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -2.18%E -1.32%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -10.42%E -4.74%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 13:35
Coolbet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -3.37%E -2.07%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -4.72%E -2.02%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 13:34
NordicBet1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 20:20
Betsson1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 20:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 13:35
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.96%E -2.44%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-21 13:39
Pinnacle1.61I 62.11%NM 59.75%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 40.25%EV -2.69%E -1.13%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.0%2026-07-21 19:35
Bovada1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 13:38
Betway1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.55%E -2.83%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.35%E -2.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-21 13:50
DraftKings1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.15%E -3.22%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.28%E -0.951%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-21 13:59
Bet Right1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.15%E -3.22%K -8.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.32%E -1.84%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 21:40
Hard Rock Bet1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.28%E -0.951%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 15:09
SportsBet1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.74%E -3.61%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -3.50%E -1.48%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-21 13:35
LiveScore Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 15:09
Unibet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Virgin Bet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -6.33%E -4.01%K -10.92%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-21 15:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.246%E -0.100%K -0.170%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-21 13:34
TABtouch1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 15:09
BetRivers1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 15:10
betPARX1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 15:10
Bally Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 15:10
ATG (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.10%E -1.30%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-21 15:10
FanDuel1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -6.92%E -4.41%K -12.15%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -3.91%E -1.66%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 13:35
BetMGM1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.52%E -4.82%K -13.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -0.246%E -0.100%K -0.170%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-21 13:34
Grosvenor1.51I 66.23%NM 59.84%EV -10.48%E -6.94%K -20.55%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.16%EV -8.39%E -3.73%K -6.71%G +0.000%10.7%2026-07-21 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-07-21 21:05
Novig1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88%2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12%1.0%2026-07-21 22:45
ProphetX1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%6.0%2026-07-21 21:00
Polymarket1.69I 59.17%NM 39.43%1.10I 90.91%NM 60.57%50.1%2026-07-21 22:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
1xBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.28%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.83%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.89%5.8%2026-07-21 13:35