The School of OddsDricus Du Plessis v Kamaru Usman
Head to Head
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Option 1: Dricus Du Plessis (Local)
Odds
1.2679.37%Min
1.3176.20%Mean
1.3076.92%Median
1.3872.46%Max
Consensus probabilities
68.13%1.468Min
75.58%1.323Max
71.43%1.400Mean
71.71%1.395Median
71.64%1.396IQM
71.53%1.398Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.38 under the IQM model: 71.64%
EV -1.14%Edge -0.824%Kelly -2.99%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Kamaru Usman (Visit)
Odds
2.8035.71%Min
3.3829.61%Mean
3.4528.99%Median
3.9025.64%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.42%4.095Min
31.87%3.137Max
28.57%3.500Mean
28.29%3.534Median
28.36%3.526IQM
28.47%3.513Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.90 under the IQM model: 28.36%
EV +10.60%Edge +2.72%Kelly +3.66%Growth +0.388%
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Dricus Du Plessis (Local) | Kamaru Usman (Visit) ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.26I 79.37% NM 75.58%EV -9.73% E -7.72% K -37.44% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.42%EV +10.60% E +2.72% K +3.66% G +0.388% | 5.0% | 2026-06-23 23:30 |
| Neds | 1.26I 79.37% NM 75.58%EV -9.73% E -7.72% K -37.44% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.42%EV +10.60% E +2.72% K +3.66% G +0.388% | 5.0% | 2026-06-23 23:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.27I 78.74% NM 73.92%EV -9.02% E -7.10% K -33.40% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 26.08%EV +2.10% E +0.582% K +0.806% G +0.017% | 6.5% | 2026-06-23 23:20 |
| DraftKings | 1.32I 75.76% NM 72.61%EV -5.44% E -4.12% K -16.98% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.39%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-02 17:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.31I 76.34% NM 72.77%EV -6.15% E -4.70% K -19.84% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.23%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 19:30 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| TABtouch | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Grosvenor | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Unibet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| betPARX | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:10 |
| Bally Bet | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| TAB | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-28 23:19 |
| Betway | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.92%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.08%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 07:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.29I 77.52% NM 73.07%EV -7.58% E -5.88% K -26.15% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.93%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 09:04 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52% NM 73.07%EV -7.58% E -5.88% K -26.15% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.93%EV -0.740% E -0.212% K -0.296% G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 09:05 |
| Coolbet | 1.33I 75.19% NM 72.18%EV -4.72% E -3.55% K -14.30% G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.82%EV -2.16% E -0.626% K -0.881% G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-03 13:20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.34I 74.63% NM 71.91%EV -4.00% E -2.99% K -11.77% G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15% NM 28.09%EV -2.73% E -0.795% K -1.12% G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-04 01:55 |
| Paddy Power | 1.30I 76.92% NM 72.34%EV -6.87% E -5.28% K -22.89% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.66%EV -3.58% E -1.05% K -1.49% G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 09:04 |
| NordicBet | 1.29I 77.52% NM 72.49%EV -7.58% E -5.88% K -26.15% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.51%EV -3.58% E -1.05% K -1.49% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-06 22:37 |
| Betsson | 1.29I 77.52% NM 72.49%EV -7.58% E -5.88% K -26.15% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.51%EV -3.58% E -1.05% K -1.49% G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-06 22:49 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.31I 76.34% NM 71.71%EV -6.15% E -4.70% K -19.84% G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12% NM 28.29%EV -5.85% E -1.76% K -2.52% G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-04 09:20 |
| Caesars | 1.31I 76.34% NM 71.58%EV -6.15% E -4.70% K -19.84% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.42%EV -6.41% E -1.94% K -2.79% G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-04 16:57 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.35I 74.07% NM 70.65%EV -3.29% E -2.43% K -9.39% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.35%EV -7.83% E -2.41% K -3.48% G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-03 11:54 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -4.72% E -3.55% K -14.30% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -7.83% E -2.41% K -3.48% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-05 07:35 |
| 888sport | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -4.72% E -3.55% K -14.30% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -7.83% E -2.41% K -3.48% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-03 11:49 |
| PlayUp | 1.33I 75.19% NM 70.96%EV -4.72% E -3.55% K -14.30% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 29.04%EV -7.83% E -2.41% K -3.48% G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-04 09:05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.87%EV -1.14% E -0.824% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25% NM 30.13%EV -9.25% E -2.89% K -4.20% G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-03 12:39 |
| BetUS | 1.38I 72.46% NM 69.47%EV -1.14% E -0.824% K -2.99% G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85% NM 30.53%EV -10.95% E -3.49% K -5.12% G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-03 11:49 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.32I 75.76% NM 70.14%EV -5.44% E -4.12% K -16.98% G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.86%EV -12.08% E -3.90% K -5.75% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-04 12:35 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.31I 76.34% NM 68.51%EV -6.15% E -4.70% K -19.84% G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09% NM 31.49%EV -19.17% E -6.73% K -10.36% G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-07-03 11:45 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.31I 76.34% NM 68.13%EV -6.15% E -4.70% K -19.84% G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71% NM 31.87%EV -20.59% E -7.35% K -11.44% G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-07-03 11:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Dricus Du Plessis (Local) | Kamaru Usman (Visit) | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1.37I 72.99% | 3.33I 30.03% | 3.0% | 2026-07-04 22:30 |
| Novig | 1.28I 78.13% | 3.28I 30.49% | 8.6% | 2026-07-05 01:55 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34I 74.63% | 3.43I 29.15% | 33.00I 3.03% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 09:25 |
Arbitrage (3 combinations)+1.93%BetOnline.ag 1.38 (73.9%) / Ladbrokes (AU) 3.90 (26.1%)Show all 3 combinations
| Dricus Du Plessis (Local) | Kamaru Usman (Visit) | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag 1.38 (73.9%) | Ladbrokes (AU) 3.90 (26.1%) | +1.93% |
| BetOnline.ag 1.38 (73.9%) | Neds 3.90 (26.1%) | +1.93% |
| BetUS 1.38 (73.9%) | Ladbrokes (AU) 3.90 (26.1%) | +1.93% |
| BetUS 1.38 (73.9%) | Neds 3.90 (26.1%) | +1.93% |
| PointsBet (AU) 1.35 (74.3%) | Ladbrokes (AU) 3.90 (25.7%) | +0.286% |
| PointsBet (AU) 1.35 (74.3%) | Neds 3.90 (25.7%) | +0.286% |