The School of OddsDricus Du Plessis v Kamaru Usman
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →
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Head to Head
Dricus Du Plessis (Local)
Prediction 65.60%1.52fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.83%65.78%65.55%69.84%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.361.451.451.5074%69%69%67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Kamaru Usman (Visit)
Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV +8.35%
Edge +2.65%
Kelly +3.88%
Growth +0.324%
assuming max odds 3.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.16%34.22%34.45%36.17%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.632.772.753.1538%36%36%32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
1 bookmaker(s) offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -10.78%E -7.93%K -29.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV +8.35%E +2.65%K +3.88%G +0.324% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| NordicBet | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -8.81%E -6.34%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV +6.63%E +2.14%K +3.16%G +0.209% | 4.2% | 2026-07-19 02:24 |
| Betsson | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -8.81%E -6.34%K -22.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV +6.63%E +2.14%K +3.16%G +0.209% | 4.2% | 2026-07-19 02:25 |
| TAB | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -8.16%E -5.83%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +3.19%E +1.06%K +1.60%G +0.051% | 4.8% | 2026-07-19 02:19 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV +0.785%E +0.268%K +0.407%G +0.003% | 3.1% | 2026-07-19 02:25 |
| Bovada | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -0.247%E -0.085%K -0.130%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Caesars | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.97%E -0.690%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-07-19 01:47 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.97%E -0.690%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| Fliff | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -1.97%E -0.690%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-19 02:24 |
| BetUS | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -3.00%E -1.06%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-19 02:25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| DraftKings | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.22%E -2.89%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-19 01:25 |
| Coolbet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.22%E -2.89%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-07-18 13:45 |
| BetMGM | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| PlayUp | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-19 01:40 |
| BetAnything | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.19%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.81%EV -4.37%E -1.57%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-19 01:20 |
| FanDuel | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.09%EV -2.91%E -1.97%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.91%EV -5.06%E -1.83%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-07-19 02:15 |
| SportsBet | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -4.22%E -2.89%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-19 02:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 01:35 |
| 888sport | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 01:35 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.88%E -3.36%K -10.84%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-19 01:05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Betway | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 07:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -1.60%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-07-18 15:45 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-18 17:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-19 02:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.30%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-19 02:25 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| TABtouch | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:45 |
| Unibet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| betPARX | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:45 |
| Bally Bet | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:45 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| BetRivers | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:50 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-18 15:45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%EV -7.50%E -5.32%K -18.29%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%EV -9.53%E -3.63%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-19 02:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.84% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 34.16% | -0.1% | 2026-07-19 02:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 0.4% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 0.9% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Novig | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.84% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 32.16% | 1.0% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Polymarket | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Kalshi | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.37% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.63% | 1.1% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37% | 1.3% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| ProphetX | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-07-19 02:30 |
| Matchbook | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.21% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.79% | 2.7% | 2026-07-19 02:32 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.88% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-07-19 01:20 |