Language:English
Drew Dober v Michael Johnson
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Drew Dober (Local)
Prediction 64.32%1.55fair odd
EV -0.304%
Edge -0.196%
Kelly -0.552%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%64.21%64.29%69.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.471.481.5572.99%67.81%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Michael Johnson (Visit)
Prediction 35.68%2.80fair odd
EV +10.61%
Edge +3.42%
Kelly +5.05%
Growth +0.536%
assuming max odds 3.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.65%35.79%35.71%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.682.653.1040.82%37.32%37.74%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Drew Dober (Local): 64.32%; Michael Johnson (Visit): 35.68%. For Michael Johnson (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.61%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -11.88%E -8.67%K -32.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV +10.61%E +3.42%K +5.05%G +0.536% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 23:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.096%E -0.034%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 00:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -0.096%E -0.034%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 00:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -7.38%E -5.12%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -0.096%E -0.034%K -0.054%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -1.88%E -0.684%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.88%E -0.684%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.88%E -0.684%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:34 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -6.74%E -4.65%K -14.97%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.88%E -0.684%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -3.66%E -1.36%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-08 02:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -4.16%E -2.79%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -3.66%E -1.36%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -3.66%E -1.36%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.11%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.89%EV -4.38%E -1.63%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -4.73%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -2.88%E -1.91%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-08 02:42 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.45%E -3.71%K -11.59%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -5.45%E -2.06%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-07 22:53 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -6.16%E -2.34%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-08 02:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.52%E -2.49%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 23:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -3.52%E -2.35%K -7.04%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -6.52%E -2.49%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.38%E -5.12%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.52%E -2.49%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.81%E -3.25%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -7.23%E -2.78%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 02:47 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.18%EV -7.38%E -5.12%K -16.77%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.82%EV -7.95%E -3.08%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 22:36 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -0.304%E -0.196%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -12.58%E -5.14%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-03-08 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96% | 0.7% | 2026-03-08 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96% | 0.7% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.32% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.68% | 0.9% | 2026-03-08 02:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.54I 64.94%NM 64.19% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.81% | 1.2% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.77% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23% | 2.1% | 2026-03-08 02:48 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 02:49 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.52% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.61% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 7.0% | 2026-03-08 02:42 |