The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Douglas Rodrigues v Trent Miller

Kickoff: 2026-08-19 00:34 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Douglas Rodrigues (Local)

Prediction 83.86%1.19fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -17.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.08%84.03%83.86%85.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.151.1689.29%87.49%87.34%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Trent Miller (Visit)

Prediction 16.14%6.20fair odd
EV +4.90%
Edge +0.755%
Kelly +0.892%
Growth +0.044%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.70%15.97%16.14%18.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.655.556.5020.83%17.70%18.02%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Douglas Rodrigues (Local): 83.86%; Trent Miller (Visit): 16.14%. For Trent Miller (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -6.08%E -5.42%K -50.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +4.90%E +0.755%K +0.892%G +0.044%4.7%2026-08-19 00:28
BetMGM🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.40%E -3.86%K -31.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -3.16%E -0.527%K -0.633%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-19 00:25
FanDuel🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.69%EV -3.56%E -3.10%K -23.73%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.31%EV -4.78%E -0.810%K -0.975%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-19 00:30
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.09%EV -2.72%E -2.35%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.91%EV -8.01%E -1.40%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-19 00:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.09%EV -4.40%E -3.86%K -31.42%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.91%EV -9.62%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-19 00:25
TABtouch🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -2.72%E -2.35%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -11.23%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-19 00:05
Grosvenor🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -2.72%E -2.35%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -11.23%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-19 00:04
Unibet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.58%EV -2.72%E -2.35%K -17.01%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -11.23%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-19 00:04
BetAnything🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.08%E -5.42%K -50.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.23%E -2.04%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-19 00:30
ReBet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -6.08%E -5.42%K -50.63%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -22.53%E -4.69%K -5.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-18 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.68%7.00I 14.29%NM 14.32%-0.2%2026-08-19 00:24
Novig◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.29%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.71%1.8%2026-08-19 00:30
ProphetX◎1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%7.7%2026-08-19 00:30