Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Donte Johnson v Eric McConico

2026-08-16 02:00 UTC — MMA

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

67%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Donte Johnson (Local)

Prediction 67.30%1.49fair odd

EV -3.77%

Edge -2.63%

Kelly -8.76%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.97%67.37%67.13%68.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.411.411.4371.43%70.81%70.92%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eric McConico (Visit)

Prediction 32.70%3.06fair odd

EV -1.23%

Edge -0.408%

Kelly -0.610%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.83%32.63%32.87%33.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.852.922.903.0235.09%34.26%34.48%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Donte Johnson (Local): 67.30%; Eric McConico (Visit): 32.70%. For Eric McConico (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.02, with an expected value of -1.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.77%E -2.63%K -8.76%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-04 21:14
Caesars	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.77%E -2.63%K -8.76%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-08-04 22:25
BetOnline.ag	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.44%E -3.13%K -10.57%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -1.89%E -0.629%K -0.943%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-08-04 21:15
PointsBet (AU)	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.44%E -3.13%K -10.57%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-04 15:24
Pinnacle	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.17%EV -5.11%E -3.63%K -12.47%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 31.83%EV -1.23%E -0.408%K -0.610%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-04 18:50
Betr (AU)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.79%E -4.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-04 21:25
NordicBet	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.79%E -4.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-04 20:34
Betsson	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.79%E -4.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.16%E -1.78%K -2.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-08-04 20:35
Unibet (UK)	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.79%E -4.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.79%E -2.38%K -3.67%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-08-04 21:19

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig	1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%	7.5%	2026-08-04 21:15

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

Bookmaker	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Margin ▲	Updated
1xBet	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.44%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.72%	33.00I 3.03%NM 2.84%	6.9%	2026-08-04 22:44