The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Donegi Abena v Joe Schilling

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 18:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Donegi Abena (Local)

Prediction 89.68%1.12fair odd
EV -3.15%
Edge -2.92%
Kelly -39.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.41%89.68%89.68%93.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.061.081.0898.04%94.21%92.59%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Joe Schilling (Visit)

Prediction 10.32%9.69fair odd
EV +44.55%
Edge +3.18%
Kelly +3.43%
Growth +1.53%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.79%10.32%10.32%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.899.0014.0013.33%10.12%11.11%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Donegi Abena (Local): 89.68%; Joe Schilling (Visit): 10.32%. For Joe Schilling (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.69. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +44.55%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -8.53%E -8.36%K -426.56%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +44.55%E +3.18%K +3.43%G +1.53%5.2%2026-05-23 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -8.53%E -8.36%K -426.56%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +44.55%E +3.18%K +3.43%G +1.53%5.2%2026-05-23 18:09
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.06%EV -4.05%E -3.78%K -57.82%G +0.000%9.70I 10.31%NM 9.94%EV +0.149%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-23 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.15%E -2.92%K -39.38%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -7.08%E -0.786%K -0.885%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-23 18:09
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.15%E -2.92%K -39.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -22.57%E -3.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:10
LeoVegas🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.15%E -2.92%K -39.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -22.57%E -3.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -3.15%E -2.92%K -39.38%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -22.57%E -3.01%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-23 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.