The School of Odds
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Dominik Humburger v Patrik Kincl

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Dominik Humburger (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -41.15%
Kelly -69.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.17%0.00%0.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.432.432.4341.15%41.15%41.15%41.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Patrik Kincl (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -66.67%
Kelly -200.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.83%0.00%0.00%61.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.501.501.5066.67%66.67%66.67%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dominik Humburger (Local): 0.00%; Patrik Kincl (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%7.8%2026-10-16 10:49
Unibet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.17%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.83%7.8%2026-10-16 10:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.