Language:English
Diyar Nurgozhay v Bruno Lopes
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Diyar Nurgozhay (Local)
Prediction 59.68%1.68fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.78%59.65%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.601.601.6566.23%62.43%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bruno Lopes (Visit)
Prediction 40.32%2.48fair odd
EV +2.81%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.82%
Growth +0.051%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%40.22%40.35%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.342.352.5545.45%42.65%42.55%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diyar Nurgozhay (Local): 59.68%; Bruno Lopes (Visit): 40.32%. For Bruno Lopes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.81%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +2.81%E +1.10%K +1.82%G +0.051% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.69%E -5.68%K -16.39%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +2.81%E +1.10%K +1.82%G +0.051% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%EV -1.62%E -0.664%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.80%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.20%EV -2.83%E -1.17%K -2.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-08 23:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.23%E -1.35%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -3.23%E -1.35%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.11%E -3.21%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.23%E -1.35%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-08 13:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.20%EV -5.70%E -3.61%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.80%EV -3.64%E -1.52%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -4.85%E -2.05%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 15:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-08 19:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.91%E -2.43%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 12:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 20:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 15:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 15:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.51%E -2.82%K -7.52%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.25%E -2.23%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 14:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.54%EV -1.53%E -0.925%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.46%EV -6.06%E -2.60%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-08 19:58 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.53%E -0.925%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.27%E -3.16%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -2.72%E -1.67%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -7.27%E -3.16%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-08 19:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -3.91%E -2.43%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.27%E -3.16%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-08 19:14 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.53%E -0.925%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-08 19:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-08 22:29 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 20:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.32%E -2.05%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-01 19:58 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -3.91%E -2.43%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-08 19:34 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.30%E -4.01%K -11.05%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.28%E -4.13%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-08 22:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -9.88%E -6.54%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -11.30%E -5.14%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-08 21:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.53% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 39.47% | 0.1% | 2026-08-08 22:59 |
| Novig◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 0.4% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 61.39% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.61% | 1.2% | 2026-08-08 23:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.87% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.13% | 1.4% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00% | 1.6% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 1.7% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.34% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 1.7% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.15% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.85% | 2.0% | 2026-08-08 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.39% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.77% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.85% | 8.4% | 2026-08-08 18:29 |
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