Language:English
Dione Barbosa v Melissa Gatto
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dione Barbosa (Local)
Prediction 55.38%1.81fair odd
EV +7.99%
Edge +4.10%
Kelly +8.41%
Growth +0.673%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.74%58.19%53.06%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.591.611.9579.37%62.95%62.11%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melissa Gatto (Visit)
Prediction 44.62%2.24fair odd
EV +60.63%
Edge +16.84%
Kelly +23.32%
Growth +14.14%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.08%41.81%46.94%50.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.582.253.6053.48%38.81%44.44%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dione Barbosa (Local): 55.38%; Melissa Gatto (Visit): 44.62%. For Melissa Gatto (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +60.63%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -29.67%E -23.36%K -109.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV +60.63%E +16.84%K +23.32%G +14.14% | 6.5% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -28.56%E -22.14%K -98.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 21:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -28.56%E -22.14%K -98.48%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.1% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +56.16%E +16.05%K +22.47%G +12.62% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV +49.47%E +14.77%K +21.05%G +10.41% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV +49.47%E +14.77%K +21.05%G +10.41% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.35%EV -29.11%E -22.74%K -103.97%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.65%EV +49.47%E +14.77%K +21.05%G +10.41% | 8.0% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.37%EV -30.22%E -23.98%K -116.23%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV +47.24%E +14.32%K +20.54%G +9.70% | 9.7% | 2026-04-04 21:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -28.00%E -21.54%K -93.35%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV +45.01%E +13.85%K +20.00%G +9.00% | 7.7% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -24.68%E -18.15%K -68.56%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +38.32%E +12.36%K +18.25%G +6.99% | 5.8% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.48%EV -25.79%E -19.25%K -75.85%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV +36.09%E +11.83%K +17.60%G +6.35% | 7.4% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -24.68%E -18.15%K -68.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +33.86%E +11.29%K +16.93%G +5.73% | 6.9% | 2026-04-04 21:48 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -22.47%E -16.05%K -56.16%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV +28.50%E +9.90%K +15.16%G +4.32% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 21:47 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -19.70%E -13.58%K -43.77%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV +18.24%E +6.88%K +11.05%G +2.02% | 6.7% | 2026-04-04 21:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -16.93%E -11.29%K -33.86%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV +7.08%E +2.95%K +5.06%G +0.359% | 8.3% | 2026-04-04 21:47 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -15.27%E -9.98%K -28.80%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV +4.85%E +2.07%K +3.60%G +0.174% | 7.9% | 2026-04-04 21:47 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -10.84%E -6.73%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +0.392%E +0.174%K +0.313%G +0.001% | 6.6% | 2026-04-04 21:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.91%EV -10.28%E -6.35%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.09%EV -4.52%E -2.11%K -3.96%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-04 21:47 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.64%E -2.09%K -4.91%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.30%E -3.00%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-04 18:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.53%E -1.44%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -8.09%E -3.93%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-01 14:06 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -2.53%E -1.44%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -8.09%E -3.93%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-01 14:06 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.313%E -0.174%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.76%E -5.38%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-03 21:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.313%E -0.174%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.76%E -5.38%K -10.76%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-04 14:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 51.43%EV +3.56%E +1.91%K +4.10%G +0.146% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.57%EV -11.66%E -5.89%K -11.89%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-04 14:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.46%E +1.33%K +2.89%G +0.071% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -12.99%E -6.66%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 20:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.46%E +1.33%K +2.89%G +0.071% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -12.99%E -6.66%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 21:41 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV +0.794%E +0.436%K +0.969%G +0.008% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -12.99%E -6.66%K -13.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-04 21:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV +5.22%E +2.75%K +5.81%G +0.303% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV -13.44%E -6.93%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-04 13:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 49.74%EV +7.99%E +4.10%K +8.41%G +0.673% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.26%EV -13.89%E -7.19%K -14.93%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-04-04 21:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +5.78%E +3.03%K +6.35%G +0.367% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -14.78%E -7.74%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 21:24 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +5.78%E +3.03%K +6.35%G +0.367% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -14.78%E -7.74%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 21:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +5.78%E +3.03%K +6.35%G +0.367% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -14.78%E -7.74%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 21:41 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.74%EV +6.33%E +3.30%K +6.88%G +0.436% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.26%EV -15.22%E -8.01%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-04 21:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +5.22%E +2.75%K +5.81%G +0.303% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -15.22%E -8.01%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 21:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +5.22%E +2.75%K +5.81%G +0.303% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -15.22%E -8.01%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-04 21:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV +4.67%E +2.47%K +5.25%G +0.245% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.00%EV -15.67%E -8.29%K -17.61%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-04 14:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +3.56%E +1.91%K +4.10%G +0.146% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -16.56%E -8.86%K -19.04%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-04 19:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 50.00% | 0.0% | 2026-04-04 21:34 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 50.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-04 21:39 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 97.06% | 33.33I 3.00%NM 2.94% | 2.0% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 50.13% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.87% | 3.9% | 2026-04-04 21:42 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.89% | 2.96I 33.78%NM 32.11% | 5.2% | 2026-04-04 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 52.91% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.09% | 11.2% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 73.17% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 26.83% | 24.2% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
| Novig◎ | 1.00I 100.00%NM 71.83% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 28.17% | 39.2% | 2026-04-04 21:49 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.88% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43% | 34.00I 2.94%NM 2.69% | 9.4% | 2026-04-04 21:27 |