Language:English
Diego Lopes v Steve Garcia Jr.
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Diego Lopes (Local)
Prediction 59.25%1.69fair odd
EV -1.06%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.28%59.16%59.25%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.601.601.6764.10%62.47%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Steve Garcia Jr. (Visit)
Prediction 40.75%2.45fair odd
EV -0.155%
Edge -0.063%
Kelly -0.107%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%40.84%40.75%43.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.382.4546.51%42.60%42.02%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diego Lopes (Local): 59.25%; Steve Garcia Jr. (Visit): 40.75%. For Steve Garcia Jr. (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.454. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.450, with an expected value of -0.155%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -1.06%E -0.633%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -8.31%E -3.69%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-14 11:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.06%E -0.633%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.34%E -4.70%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 00:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.06%E -0.633%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.34%E -4.70%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 00:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.06%E -0.633%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -10.34%E -4.70%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-15 00:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -1.06%E -0.633%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -12.38%E -5.76%K -10.77%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 00:48 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.87%EV -1.65%E -0.994%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.13%EV -7.08%E -3.11%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-15 00:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.31%EV -2.84%E -1.73%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.69%EV -2.60%E -1.09%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.20%EV -2.84%E -1.73%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.80%EV -3.01%E -1.26%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -2.84%E -1.73%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -7.90%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-15 00:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.43%E -2.10%K -5.44%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-15 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.90%EV -4.02%E -2.48%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.10%EV -1.38%E -0.569%K -0.970%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -4.02%E -2.48%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -3.01%E -1.26%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-15 00:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.02%E -2.48%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.82%E -1.62%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-06-15 00:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.02%E -2.48%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.61%E -2.87%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -4.23%E -1.80%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-08 20:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-08 20:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.23%E -1.80%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.23%E -1.80%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -4.23%E -1.80%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 00:30 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -5.21%E -3.25%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -7.08%E -3.11%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 00:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.80%E -3.65%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.23%E -1.80%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 00:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.80%E -3.65%K -9.83%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.27%E -2.73%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-15 00:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -0.155%E -0.063%K -0.107%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -6.98%E -4.45%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -7.58%E -4.86%K -13.53%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -2.19%E -0.913%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.62% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.38% | -0.2% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 59.42% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.58% | 0.2% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-06-15 00:51 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 0.9% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17% | 2.1% | 2026-06-15 00:50 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.78% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.35% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.87% | 6.8% | 2026-06-15 00:20 |