Language:English
Dennis Buzukja v Bogdan Grad
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Dennis Buzukja (Local)
Prediction 35.03%2.85fair odd
EV +0.185%
Edge +0.065%
Kelly +0.099%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.86
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%35.17%34.76%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.672.652.8641.15%37.48%37.74%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bogdan Grad (Visit)
Prediction 64.97%1.54fair odd
EV -0.595%
Edge -0.389%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.50%64.83%65.24%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.481.481.5369.44%67.43%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dennis Buzukja (Local): 35.03%; Bogdan Grad (Visit): 64.97%. For Dennis Buzukja (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.85. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.185%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.95%EV +0.185%E +0.065%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 66.05%EV -4.49%E -3.06%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV +0.185%E +0.065%K +0.099%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 15:19 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -0.165%E -0.058%K -0.089%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.44%E -4.47%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-01 15:17 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.96%EV -1.22%E -0.431%K -0.668%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.04%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-01 15:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -1.92%E -0.685%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -4.49%E -3.06%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -1.92%E -0.685%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-01 12:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.20%EV -2.27%E -0.813%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.80%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.82%EV -2.97%E -1.07%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.18%EV -3.84%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-01 13:43 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.84%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-30 23:54 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -3.84%E -2.60%K -8.01%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-30 23:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-01 12:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.44%E -4.47%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 15:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.67%E -1.33%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.44%E -4.47%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 15:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -5.42%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -2.54%E -1.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-27 03:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.42%E -2.01%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.79%E -4.00%K -12.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-30 09:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -7.17%E -2.71%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.49%E -3.06%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.22%E -3.14%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.54%E -1.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-27 11:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -8.92%E -3.43%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -0.595%E -0.389%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-01 15:19 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -8.92%E -3.43%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -1.25%E -0.819%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.92%E -3.43%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.54%E -1.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.92%E -3.43%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.54%E -1.70%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-01 10:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -0.595%E -0.389%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.25%E -0.819%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.25%E -0.819%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -1.25%E -0.819%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -1.89%E -1.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -1.89%E -1.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -1.89%E -1.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -1.89%E -1.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -1.89%E -1.25%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -10.67%E -4.19%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -3.19%E -2.14%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-01 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.21%EV -14.88%E -6.12%K -10.40%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.79%EV -6.44%E -4.47%K -14.64%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-01 14:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 3.02I 33.11%NM 33.19% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.81% | -0.2% | 2026-08-01 15:19 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.23% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.77% | 0.0% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76% | 0.7% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.86I 34.97%NM 34.70% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 65.30% | 0.8% | 2026-08-01 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.40% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.60% | 0.9% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Novig◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.88I 34.72%NM 34.25% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.75% | 1.4% | 2026-08-01 15:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 34.63% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.53% | 50.00I 2.00%NM 1.84% | 8.6% | 2026-07-29 00:53 |
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