Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deniz Ilbay v Hugo Vach

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00 UTC

Final: Deniz Ilbay 1–0 Hugo Vach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Deniz Ilbay (Local)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd

EV -100.00%

Edge -31.25%

Kelly -45.45%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.89%0.00%0.00%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.203.203.203.2031.25%31.25%31.25%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hugo Vach (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%—fair odd

EV -100.00%

Edge -76.92%

Kelly -333.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.11%0.00%0.00%71.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.301.301.3076.92%76.92%76.92%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deniz Ilbay (Local): 0.00%; Hugo Vach (Visit): 0.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Grosvenor🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%	8.2%	2026-09-26 10:35
Unibet🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%	8.2%	2026-09-26 10:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.